And what happens if Trump decides that he doesn’t care about such expensive professions of loyalty, and shuts down USMCA anyway? Mexico City will have to rebuild trade relations with the rest of the world from scratch, but capitals from Brasilia to Beijing may not be particularly warmly disposed at that point.
Many countries in Asia had hoped that America-first trade policy – even if disruptive – might end up forging a united front against Chinese dominance of manufacturing. Sheinbaum’s surrender shows us a different path.
In this alternative world, some countries will quietly enact the US president’s policies for him. The others will, perhaps with China in the lead, find a multilateral path to isolate collaborators.
Countries across Asia and beyond now know that it isn’t just their relationship with the US that is threatened, but with multiple other nations as Trump tries to push everyone into his dream, high-tariff world.
He has already asked the European Union, for example, to impose 100 per cent tariffs on China and India. It is unlikely to agree.
Some countries will raise high and unpredictable trade barriers against each other and the world, while the rest will seek security and prosperity by integrating faster and further. Sheinbaum may have picked the wrong side.
In his first term, Trump promised to have Mexico pay for his wall. In his second term, he has succeeded. So what if the wall is one of tariffs, and not bricks?