Hope for imminent Russia-Ukraine peace is out of touch with reality, expert says

6 comments

1. Non-expert also says that.

2. Any non Russian asset says that.

3. Unfortunately the reality is Russia has invested so much into this war, they need total control of all stolen natural resources to compensate for the cost of the war. Ignore all propaganda the kremlin spins, its all about the lithium. All Ukraine has to do to end the war is grant Russia full ownership of the lithium and Crimea. This was a war of theft, nothing else. I read the lithium’s value alone is more than Russia spent on the war. Some say its worth 3 trillion dollars that they have stolen and they want more.

4. If Russia could leave the war without feeling humiliated, perhaps peace would be possible

5. I think it really depends on how serious the demands are from both sides. Ukraine has basically accepted not joining NATO, and Russia seems to have accepted that Ukraine will get security guarantees. The basis for a ceasefire looks like it will be the current frontline in some form or another, and if Russia drops its demand for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk and for “recognition” of its annexations, and the EU agrees to unfreeze Russian assets, there could be a deal. The two major roadblocks I see are:
   -Any Russian demand that NATO rule out further expansion would be very difficult for NATO to agree to.
   -The deployment of Western peacekeepers would be a massive political setback for Russia, and I don’t think they’ll accept that.
   So maybe some deal that Ukraine rules out foreign troops on its territory, and Russia drops all demands towards NATO? Definitely difficult, but not impossible.

6. If Dr Watson was here, he would say; No Shit Sherlock.

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