The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s [annual conflict risk assessment](https://on.cfr.org/48RnwsN), American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.
This year, “Tier 1” conflicts with a high likelihood and high impact on U.S. interests included:
* Increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the **West Bank** over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights, and the war in Gaza.
* Renewed fighting in the **Gaza Strip**, triggered by increasing clashes between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces, deepens the humanitarian crisis and exacerbates regional instability.
* An intensification of the **Russia-Ukraine** war, caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers.
* U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in **Venezuela**, destabilizing the Maduro government.
* Growing political violence and popular unrest in the **United States**, exacerbated by heightened political antagonism and domestic security deployment.
In addition, experts identified the war in Sudan as the conflict most likely to escalate in 2026.
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The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. According to CFR’s [annual conflict risk assessment](https://on.cfr.org/48RnwsN), American foreign policy experts are acutely concerned about conflict-related threats to U.S. national security and international stability that are likely to emerge or intensify in 2026. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.
This year, “Tier 1” conflicts with a high likelihood and high impact on U.S. interests included:
* Increased conflict between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the **West Bank** over Israeli settlement construction, Palestinian political rights, and the war in Gaza.
* Renewed fighting in the **Gaza Strip**, triggered by increasing clashes between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces, deepens the humanitarian crisis and exacerbates regional instability.
* An intensification of the **Russia-Ukraine** war, caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers.
* U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in **Venezuela**, destabilizing the Maduro government.
* Growing political violence and popular unrest in the **United States**, exacerbated by heightened political antagonism and domestic security deployment.
In addition, experts identified the war in Sudan as the conflict most likely to escalate in 2026.
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