Forecast rain is dampening the risk of bushfires on Christmas Day for most capital cities but parts of the nation will be on heatwave alert.

Australia has been experiencing a “reasonably active” bushfire season amid hot weather, according to Natural Hazards Research Australia’s chief executive, Andrew Gissing.

“In New South Wales we had about 16 homes lost recently, a similar number at Dolphin Sands in Tasmania and there’s been a few lost in Western Australia as well, and tragically, we’ve lost firefighters as well,” he said.

There would be heatwave conditions and extreme fire danger in parts of WA over Christmas, particularly around the south-west, he said.

“WA folks are facing extreme heat … the strength of the winds and the relatively low humidity is taken into account when calculating those fire danger ratings.

Sign up: AU Breaking News email

“WA has also been experiencing this longer term drying trend, which has been escalating … and when you have bushfire and extreme heat, you’ve also got the associated health risks of the bushfire smoke.”

Canberra (27C) and Adelaide (25C) were the only capitals expecting a fine and relatively mild Christmas Day, while Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Hobart could expect showers, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Darwin could get a 50mm tropical downpour.

On Christmas Day, Sydney can expect a shower or two and a top of 23C, Melbourne’s forecast is for a chilly and windy 17C day, and Brisbane is predicted to be a balmy 34C.

Perth will have a scorcher, with 41C forecast before a milder 27C on Boxing Day.

“Other than bushfires, you’ve also got widespread heavy rainfall across northern Australia, which will lead to potential flooding,” Gissing said.

“And you’ve also got this category-two cyclone that’s firmed up in the Indian Ocean, which might impact the Cocos Islands on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day as well.”