As of December 24, 2025, the landscape of the American critical minerals sector has undergone a seismic shift, with United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE American: UAMY) emerging as a central pillar of the nation’s industrial defense strategy. Over the past year, UAMY has transitioned from a niche processor into a high-stakes strategic asset, bolstered by a landmark $245 million contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and a significant $106.7 million agreement with a major industrial fabric manufacturer. These developments come at a time when the global supply chain for antimony—a mineral essential for everything from military-grade ammunition to flame retardants and lead-acid batteries—has been weaponized in a broader geopolitical tug-of-war.
The immediate implications for the market are profound. While China’s recent decision to temporarily suspend its export ban on antimony in November 2025 has provided a brief respite for global prices, the “domestic-first” momentum for U.S. procurement appears irreversible. Investors are currently weighing UAMY’s massive 2026 revenue projections against recent stock price volatility, as the company prepares to complete a six-fold expansion of its Montana smelter capacity in January 2026. For the public and the markets, UAMY now represents the tip of the spear in the United States’ efforts to decouple its defense supply chain from foreign adversaries.
The Road to $245 Million: A Timeline of Strategic Necessity
The surge in UAMY’s corporate profile began in earnest in late 2024, following China’s implementation of strict export controls on antimony. This move sent global prices skyrocketing to peaks near $51,500 per ton in early 2025, exposing the fragility of the Western supply chain. In response, the U.S. government accelerated its efforts to shore up the National Defense Stockpile. In September 2025, UAMY secured a sole-source, five-year contract from the DLA worth up to $245 million—a staggering figure considering it represents approximately 17 times the company’s total revenue from just a year prior. By late September, the company had already received its first $10 million delivery order for 315,000 pounds of antimony metal.
This momentum continued into November 2025, when UAMY announced a $106.7 million industrial contract to provide antimony trioxide to a major U.S. manufacturer. This deal, spanning five years with an option for five more, signaled that the private sector is following the military’s lead in “reshoring” critical mineral needs. Operationally, UAMY has spent the latter half of 2025 aggressively expanding its “upstream” capabilities. The acquisition of the Mohawk property in Alaska and the restart of mining at Stibnite Hill in Montana have moved the company toward full vertical integration. CEO Gary Evans has noted that the profit margins on self-mined ore are roughly triple those of processed third-party ore, a factor that has kept analyst sentiment high despite recent fluctuations in the stock price.
Winners and Losers in the Antimony Arms Race
The primary winner in this evolving market is undoubtedly United States Antimony Corporation, which now holds a near-monopoly as the only fully integrated antimony smelter in North America capable of meeting stringent military specifications. This unique position has allowed them to dictate terms in a way that was impossible three years ago. Other beneficiaries include domestic defense giants such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX), who now have a more secure, albeit more expensive, domestic source for the antimony required for primers, tracer ammunition, and infrared sensors. Furthermore, development-stage companies like Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA), which received a $6.9 million DoD grant in mid-2025, stand to gain as the demand for domestic raw ore increases to feed UAMY’s expanding smelter capacity.
Conversely, the “losers” in this scenario are the industrial consumers who failed to secure long-term domestic contracts before the 2025 price spikes. Many smaller manufacturers of flame retardants and plastics, who historically relied on cheap Chinese imports, have seen their margins decimated by the combination of export restrictions and the subsequent premium commanded by domestic suppliers. Additionally, Chinese exporters are losing their long-term grip on the U.S. market. Even with the “Busan De-escalation”—a one-year suspension of China’s export ban announced in November 2025—the trust between U.S. buyers and Chinese suppliers has been fundamentally broken, leading to a permanent shift in procurement strategies that favors Western-aligned sources.
Geopolitics and the New “Critical Mineral” Paradigm
The saga of UAMY fits into a much larger global trend: the transition from globalized efficiency to regional resilience. For decades, the United States was content to outsource the environmentally taxing and low-margin business of mineral processing to China. However, the events of 2024 and 2025 have demonstrated that critical minerals are the “new oil.” The U.S. government’s willingness to grant sole-source contracts to a company of UAMY’s size reflects a policy shift toward “friend-shoring” and domestic capacity building at any cost. This mirrors historical precedents like the 1950s Defense Production Act initiatives, but with a modern focus on high-tech and “green” applications, as antimony is also a vital component in large-scale liquid metal batteries for grid storage.
This trend has significant ripple effects on competitors and international partners. The “Busan De-escalation” suggests that while China is willing to use mineral exports as a diplomatic lever, the U.S. is no longer willing to be caught off guard. Regulatory focus is now shifting toward streamlining domestic mining permits, as seen with the Alaska Department of Natural Resources fast-tracking UAMY’s Mohawk property permits in September 2025. This regulatory tailwind is expected to benefit the entire domestic mining sector, potentially lowering the barrier to entry for other critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements.
The 2026 Outlook: Expansion and Execution
Looking ahead to 2026, the primary challenge for UAMY will be execution. The company has set ambitious revenue guidance of $125 million for the coming year, a massive jump from the $40M–$50M expected for 2025. Much of this hinges on the successful completion of the Thompson Falls smelter expansion in January 2026. If the expansion stays on schedule, UAMY will have a six-fold increase in production capacity, allowing it to fulfill the backlog of DLA and industrial orders that have accumulated over the past quarter. However, the market remains wary; the stock saw a sharp correction in late 2025 following a Q3 earnings miss, trading around the $6.00 mark as of late December.
Strategic pivots may still be required if global antimony prices stabilize at lower levels following the temporary lifting of the Chinese ban. UAMY will need to prove that its vertical integration—mining its own ore in Alaska and Montana—can keep it profitable even if the “scarcity premium” for antimony begins to fade. Market opportunities may emerge in the energy storage sector, where UAMY’s high-purity antimony could find a home in the next generation of long-duration batteries, providing a hedge against fluctuations in defense spending.
Investor Takeaway: A High-Stakes Domestic Play
In summary, 2025 has been a year of validation for United States Antimony Corporation. By securing nearly $350 million in combined defense and industrial contracts, the company has effectively de-risked its path to profitability for the next half-decade. The market’s current hesitation, reflected in the recent stock price dip to $6.00, likely stems from the temporary easing of Chinese export restrictions and the typical “growing pains” of a small-cap company scaling its operations six-fold in a single year.
Moving forward, investors should keep a close eye on the January 2026 smelter expansion completion and the Q1 2026 earnings report, which will be the first to reflect the full impact of the DLA delivery orders. While volatility is to be expected in the critical minerals sector, UAMY’s role as a “domestic safe haven” for a strategic metal makes it a unique bellwether for the broader U.S. industrial policy. The lasting impact of this year’s developments is clear: antimony is no longer just a commodity; it is a key component of national security, and UAMY is currently the only domestic player capable of delivering it at scale.
This content is intended for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.
