Escalating executions, military theatrics, and repression reveal a regime struggling to conceal internal decay, not one rebuilding authority

Over the past six months, Iran’s regime has launched a coordinated campaign to project what it calls a “restoration of authority.” This effort has unfolded in parallel with severe political, security, and military setbacks. From an unprecedented surge in executions and intensified domestic repression to missile displays, propaganda spectacles, and diplomatic maneuvering abroad, the message is clear: the regime wants to appear strong again.

Yet the timing of these measures—coinciding with record-breaking execution figures, a deepening economic collapse, widening social discontent, and open admissions by IRGC commanders of security failures—raises a fundamental question. Is this a genuine reconstruction of power, or a costly and desperate attempt to conceal a profound structural defeat?

Executions as a Measure of Fear, Not Strength

One of the clearest indicators of the regime’s current condition is the unprecedented rise in executions. Available data shows that the number of executions this year has at least doubled compared to last year, following a steady month-by-month upward trend. This escalation is not a sign of authority regained; it is a blunt instrument designed to compensate for lost control by spreading fear.

The renewed wave of death sentences targeting supporters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) underscores the regime’s particular fear of organized resistance.

The death sentence issued against 67-year-old Zahra Tabari on charges of sympathy with the PMOI sparked widespread international backlash, with more than 400 political and human rights figures demanding its reversal. At the same time, the continued hunger-strike campaign by political prisoners across dozens of prisons—supported by their families—demonstrates that repression has not neutralized dissent. Instead, it has become a catalyst for sustained resistance.

A Dual Strategy to Mask Crisis

Faced with mounting pressure, the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has pursued a dual-track strategy. Domestically, repression has intensified through executions, expanded security patrols, and crackdowns on so-called “resistance units.” Externally, the regime has staged missile tests, regional interventions, and aggressive posturing intended to project deterrence.

The common objective of both tracks is not stability, but concealment: to hide the depth of internal crisis and to fabricate an image of cohesion and control.

However, internal regime reports and officials’ own admissions tell a different story. Much of the current trajectory can be traced back to Khamenei’s attempt to escape the consequences of the 2022 nationwide uprising.

That effort evolved into regional militarization and ultimately culminated in a short but costly war that exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities.

The outcome made one reality unmistakable: neither foreign adventurism nor international appeasement offers a solution to the regime’s crisis. The only viable path forward remains what the opposition has termed the “third option”—change driven by the people and organized resistance.

Intelligence and Security Failures Laid Bare

Perhaps the most consequential outcome of recent events has been the exposure of deep flaws within the regime’s intelligence and security apparatus. A major intelligence breach that led to the killing of a significant number of commanders in the early hours of conflict revealed an inability to anticipate or counter real threats.

Public acknowledgments by senior figures, including former regime military commanders such as Hossein Alaei, that the current structure is ineffective and requires fundamental reorganization only reinforce this assessment. The simultaneous focus of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s intelligence arm on internal surveillance has not enhanced security. On the contrary, it has left the regime more vulnerable to genuine external and strategic threats.

Military Weakness and International Fallout

On the international stage, the regime’s defensive and military weaknesses became unmistakably visible. The failure to protect Iranian airspace, heavy damage to military and nuclear-related facilities, and admissions of significant casualties by IRGC officials all contributed to a sharp erosion of Tehran’s regional and global standing.

One direct consequence has been the reactivation of international pressure mechanisms and renewed diplomatic isolation—developments that no amount of missile theatrics or propaganda can obscure.

Economic Collapse as the Engine of Uprising

Amid these pressures, the catastrophic state of the economy remains the most powerful driver of social unrest. Water and electricity shortages, energy crises, air pollution, land subsidence, runaway inflation, and the collapse of the national currency have pushed society to the brink. Ongoing strikes and protests by retirees, teachers, and other social groups point to the emergence of a genuinely revolutionary situation.

Even regime-affiliated media have acknowledged the role of opposition networks and the arrest of PMOI supporters during protests, effectively confirming the direct link between economic collapse and organized social resistance.

Fractures at the Top

Contrary to Khamenei’s claims, internal divisions within the ruling elite are widening. Recent statements by figures such as Rouhani, Larijani, and Velayati—though framed as efforts to preserve the system—converge on a single reality: past methods no longer work, and without public consent, neither security nor survival is possible. These remarks echo the late-stage confessions of the Shah’s regime in the final months before its fall.

Meanwhile, repeated announcements about the arrest of PMOI’s “Resistance Units” have had the opposite of their intended effect, inadvertently amplifying their presence and influence. Fabricated projects, such as staged incidents in Mashhad or the artificial promotion of monarchist groups by IRGC-linked networks, further reflect the regime’s desperation in the face of a credible democratic alternative: the National Council of Resistance of Iran.

One Step from Uprising

Taken together, these developments make one conclusion unavoidable. What the ruling establishment calls a “restoration of authority” is, in reality, an attempt to paper over accumulated crises and strategic failures. The principal threat to the regime does not lie abroad, but within Iran itself—in a society shaped by the uprising of 2022 and still moving forward.

The growing role of resistance units and social protests has become decisive. The current moment can be accurately described in a single phrase:

One step away from uprising.

The path ahead is not one of managed reform or manufactured authority. It is the path of a democratic revolution led by the Iranian people.