Israel recognises Somaliland, Somalia’s breakaway region, as independent state

3 comments

1. Israel is the first country to recognize Somaliland (de facto independent since 1991).

   Interesting decision, I wonder what calculation or interest sits behind it. What does Israel gain from Somaliland?

   African countries have never recognized Somaliland out of fear of stirring more unrest in Somalia, or encouraging separatist movements in their own countries.

2. The other day a turkish user was asking about Turkish/Israeli relation and if they can return to the golden age. I sneered.

   Maybe try to imagine which country has overseas military base in Somalia and which country is building aeroplane carriers to power project in the Eastern Med and the Red Sea. Then try to imagine why Israel recognized Somaliland.

3. If anyone thinks this will be some walk in the park for Somaliland then I think you’re mistaken. I like studying the Horn of Africa so sorry if I type too much.

   The Somali political elite in the south have been dreading this moment for decades and now it has happened. They’ve mostly wanted the status quo to remain because they aren’t accountable to the populations they rule over and they’ve been profiting off of NGO funds for decades. They recently tried to start a lobbying drive in congress to stall this development from happening but that has failed. I don’t see Israel recognising a seccecionist movement in Africa without Washington’s blessing. So to look at the concequences this may bring to the region I’ll go over Somalia and then somaliland and the three major tribes there.

   For the Somalia (southern parts) every single thing that has become synonymous with Somalia (failed state,civil war, poverty, corruption) has happened because the major tribes there have been in a blood feud over who rules the country. Well, the two biggest tribes to be precise. They’ve been unable to deal with Al-Shabaab because of this reason, there is no political unity there at all. This tribalism stemmed from their previous dictator carrying out tribal progroms (although there is a big debate about him actually massacring everyone equally including his own clan). Throughout this though, both tribes have irredentist ideologies deep seated in their culture about lands the view as stolen by Kenya and Ethiopia. Ethiopia and Kenya have both interfered with Somali affairs because of this reason precisely.So it’s safe to assume that they both will not accept Somaliland breaking away. There will be a lot of pressure on the tribal elders who rule over Puntland and jubaaland to come to some sort of agreement and present a united front. Im not sure how the terrorists will react to this but they’ve invaded Ethiopian border towns with the same irredentist logic in mind. Long story short the entire region outside of somaliland will be up in arms about this. These people are extremely war-like and I just don’t see a scenario in which they quietly accept this.

   For Somaliland ( where the third tribe dominates), they’ve received this recognition at the moment where they are at their weakest. After they signed the MoU with Ethiopia last year, their eastern half had a unionist uprising that quickly spiralled into war and broke away from the region to remain within Somalia proper( laascaanood). That region is now armed to the teeth and has been threatening to move deeper into eastern Somalialand (sool). A few weeks ago something similar almost happened in its western half in Awdal where tribal militias began rioting over some perceived injustices. This time the Somaliland government handled this crises better and the riots died down but this didn’t stop Djibouti from beginning to arm tribal militias there. So the situation there is now a powder keg that is will blow up inevitably. I’m assuming some sort of defence deal with Israel will be struck to prevent full on chaos but I’m not so sure, Israel has its hands full at the moment. So somaliland will have to defend itself with probably Ethiopia helping out.

   So long story short, there will be chaos and intervention once again as that is how somalias story usually goes. Ethiopia,Djibouti and maybe Eritea will be major players as well as the gulf countriesand turkey. This not to mention Eritrea and Ethiopia on the brink of war themselves. Whatever the case, I think this will be the most dynamic region in Africa over the next decade

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