How the UK and US are preparing for conflict – and what is needed now

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1. Despite the mixed rhetoric from Washington, US military planning and capability remains key to Nato war plans.

   Even those in Washington who back a strong American presence in Europe warn US strategic focus is shifting to deterring China in the Pacific – and that in a worst-case scenario, a larger conflict in Europe might come at the same time as a Chinese attack against Taiwan.

   For all the suspected Russian drones and jets incursions of the recent months, most analysts believe the wider military threat to Europe remains limited for as long as the Kremlin remains engaged in large-scale [fighting in Ukraine](https://inews.co.uk/news/zelensky-peace-plan-agreed-ukraine-us-russia-4133412?ico=in-line_link) – although Polish intelligence [in particular has warned](https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9500938,szef-skw-sluzbom-potrzeba-dystansu-od-polityki-wywiad.html) that Vladimir Putin could still launch another, limited operation now if he truly wished.

   But once Ukraine fighting stops or slows, it might not take long – perhaps even as little as a year – for a highly militarised [Russian state to rebuild its forces](https://inews.co.uk/news/world/putin-building-larger-stronger-army-peace-ukraine-will-help-him-4112306?ico=in-line_link).

   In theory, Russia might attack at any point along its border or through its ally Belarus into nations including Finland, Poland and any Baltic state. In practice, hefty Polish rearmament and a stepped-up German force in Lithuania mean the options are fewer – with the most exposed Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia by far the most at risk.

2. Russia is not suicidal. Even if they decided to invade the Baltics, I can’t imagine they wouldn’t test the waters first with unprecedented airspace violations and other bold moves. Russia has never killed a civilian in a NATO country, and I can’t imagine they would launch an invasion of a NATO country (or multiple countries) without first testing NATO’s response to casualties in a member state. Would NATO go to war over a Russian missile or drone “accidentally” destroying a family home in the countryside?

   Russia fears NATO not just because of its military power, but also because of its longevity. NATO is older than Putin, it has outlived the USSR, and Russia knows it doesn’t stand a chance against NATO. An invasion of the Baltics shouldn’t be ruled out, but Russia would only dare to do it if it were absolutely sure that at least the US wouldn’t intervene. But Russia will definitely keep pushing the limits of what it is allowed to do in NATO countries.

3. Let me rephrase that headline. “How the oligarchy are preparing for fat dividends by threatening to start a war”.

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