In the throes of disorder before a stable new world order arrives on firmer foundations of steady prosperity, humanity is witnessing tectonic shifts in the geopolitical landscape. After decades of big power playbook, not only are strong questions tossed up against the existing definition of balance of power for global peace, but active defiance is on display. This is only the start. Other events will unfold for the better or worse. Interventionist policies have been the practice of many a power in the post-World War decades, too, at times without qualms. “Vital strategic” interests are brandished blatantly, with bizarre excuses and ploys employed by powerful states to bring smaller states in line. 

For several decades, more or less unchallenged, the United States in the 2020s is drifting toward a decline. How far the collapse goes depends upon the speed with which the course gets reined in.  Bloc politics provoke howls of protests and muscle flexing in Gaza, military coups if a particular superpower is perceived to be involved. The chorus, however, goes silent if an aligned bloc were to engage in such misconduct. This was supposed to be normal. Not any longer. Global perspectives and voices are changing slowly and definitively. The practice is so often played out that its familiar feature of demonising rival institutions and political leaders remains an open secret. Might becomes right in such power politics.

Soft subjugation

Not only superpowers but also regional powers turn hegemons, behaving exactly the way the collectives West does, and treating smaller states like the backyard they own or territories within their sphere of influence. New contestants are severely discouraged early on. Regional bullies and intimidators complain of rival powers but do not hesitate to apply the same to others whenever an opportunity permits. Blind hatred of Russia’s military power and China’s super economic reach and clout have brought about the European Union’s collusion with American adventures in West Asia and elsewhere. 

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the end of the so-called Cold War did not prompt the West to disband the NATO military grouping. Continuation of the military alliance was brandished as a weapon to push forth the Western agenda as the most liberal. The global south has woken up to realise that world order should not denote a particular bloc’s interpretation of global order. The West stands for its own kind first and to the hilt, even if it means bending and reinterpreting issues and precedents. In the post-colonial decades, Western strategy is to impede the south, failing which it imposes the defiant before direct interventions. 

Protest rally machinations, media mobilisation, military coups, military invasion and comprehensive sanctions are some of the methods employed to subjugate the defiant. Iraq is a glaring case in point this century. Recent American air attacks on alleged drug boats operated by Venezuelans exemplify the latest instance of thrusting blame and acting, and ignoring others with allegedly worse records. Gaza and Ukraine showcase the glaring double standards in treating one country with kid gloves and blatantly discriminate the people of another territory. Had a Gaza-like situation occurred in a city—not necessarily an independent state—whose majority dwellers were of European origin, all hell would have been let loose against the perpetrators.     

Ideology is another area of conflict. The interventionists have a choice, whereas the target has little or no option. Not all interventions succeeded, for instance, Afghanistan, Vietnam and Korea are a few examples since the 1950s. The elite and the media in friendly countries rarely refer to the setback as often as they do when the tables turn on ideological rivals and economic competitors.  This ganging up in shielding an ally in difficulty and turning a blind eye to the victim nation bores a deep hole of injustice. When situations change, the lingering backlash bursts out with vengeance. 

Economic sanctions, attempted military coups and media blitz were unleashed against Venezuela for more than a decade. Pushed to the corner too long and too deep, Venezuela did the ultimate by going for a strategic partnership with Russia. This was coming, even if average Americans and Europeans seem to be shocked by the development. Other nations might begin to think about similar options. Strategic cooperation with a faraway big power portrays a desperate situation. A multipolar world will see such an option being invoked more often. The trend risks wider military alliances on the warpath.

New awakening 

Much of the world might no longer be prepared to condone the acts of a belligerent and condemn similar moves by others.  It should be interesting to record how the US and its allies proceed in response to the Venezuelan condition and how others perceive the situation vis-à-vis their own existing or future conditions. The desire of any superpower trying to create and supervise a unipolar world is absurd, embedded with seeds of strife and war. The earlier the realisation among the major powers, the less the predictable consequences. When trust in big powers erodes, contestants begin to defy. Big power profiteers engage in strategic diplomacy before intimidating tactics unfold. 

Inequality remains the crux of the problems everywhere. Integrating prosperity and peace should be an unremitting goal. Hypocrisy of traditional hegemons should be dispensed with, and a new order should not mean the old hegemons being replaced by new ones. Otherwise, the cycle of hegemony and the consequent clashes becomes inevitable.  Steps to a greater degree of regional cooperation can be an antidote to foreign intervention, which is obtained through mutual trust and willingness to collaborate for collective benefit.

It is too early to say for sure what comes next. Soft power could evolve as a new but subtle medium of exercising influence that is more persuasive than the order that is on its way out. Precedents are not always strong and logical. Ongoing shifts in the global order are basically contributed to by the superpower race. The world, however, awaits not a shaky truce but distinct endeavours to bring about understandings of enduring merit. 

(Professor Kharel specialises in political communication.)

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