Russia has begun to wind down its provocations in eastern Europe to avoid escalating tensions with Nato, said a top intelligence official from one of the alliance’s frontline members which has frequently raised the alarm about threats from Moscow.
“What we’re still seeing today is that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or Nato more broadly,” Estonian foreign intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin told the country’s public broadcaster in an interview.
Rosin’s words strike a different tone amid more serious warnings from western officials about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said earlier this month that the alliance must prepare itself to fend off a Russian assault in the next five years, calling on Europeans to recall the scale of destruction caused by World War II.
Rosin said his agency’s analysis also shows Russia is not specifically planning a military confrontation with the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. However, he stressed the need for continued vigilance.
“So far, it’s still clear that Russia respects Nato and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,” he said.
Earlier this month, Putin said that Russia was “ready for war” if Europe launched an attack, but stressed that Moscow was not planning any such conflict.
Tensions on Europe’s eastern flank
Tensions on Europe’s eastern flank surged following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting governments across the region to ramp up defence spending. The three Baltic nations and Poland, which share borders with Russia and Kremlin-ally Belarus and are staunch supporters of Kyiv, have born the brunt of incursions by Russian military jets and drones.
Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes earlier this year, prompting the Baltic nation to call for an emergency meeting of the alliance.
But Rosin said Moscow has taken a more cautious approach as a result of Nato’s forceful response to several such incidents. Russian jets and drones have become more careful with their flight paths over Ukraine and the Baltic Sea, Rosin said.
Eastern European Nato members also face an increasing number of acts of arson, cyberattacks and sabotage, which recently included attempted damage to a key rail line linking Poland to Ukraine. Officials have blamed the Russian intelligence services for those incidents, an accusation which Moscow has dismissed as hysteria.
In the interview, Rosin criticised the widespread description of those incidents as “hybrid attacks.” He described that term as an unhelpful euphemism which “softens reality and gives an overly innocent impression of what’s actually happening.”
“We should call things by their proper names. If it’s sabotage, then it’s sabotage,” said the Baltic nation’s intelligence chief.
Rosin also said he believes Western sanctions on Russia — particularly those targeting oil exports and access to financial markets — are starting to pressure Moscow just as US President Donald Trump continues attempts to broker peace in Ukraine.
“Russia is facing more and more problems,” Rosin said. “It’s not going to collapse in the next few months or even within six months to a year, but the pressure is beginning to take a toll.”