This steep increase was far-reaching and impacted many industries. There were spikes in the prices of the basic goods, such as Christmas trees. Moreover, the small business felt the pressure even more. The changes in trade policy affected planning, hiring, and investment.
De-Escalation in Focus as Moynihan Predicts Trade Stability
A turnaround is expected by Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. In the last interview with CBS News, he claimed that it has changed to de-escalation rather than escalation. Moynihan believes that the median tariff rate will be set at approximately 15% where there will be higher rates only on nations that are unable to conform to U.S. requirements on trade.
Moynihan emphasised the fact that the strategic tensions between the U.S. and China are not going to disappear in the near future. These unsolved problems restrict the extent of relief that international markets can provide.
The trade war affected small businesses. During the second quarter, there were numerous difficulties as the costs of inputs increased. An increase in tariffs drove margins down. The tariffs have eased, but there is another issue of increasing labour availability. The immigration policies by Trump have presented new bottlenecks. These limits are yet to be fixed, straining already constrained labour markets.
This labour uncertainty can now be a greater drag on the sentiment of small businesses than tariffs themselves.
Truck Sales Collapse Points to Recession-Level Slowdown
The story about the slowdown is supported by the broader economic data. As seen in the chart below, sales of heavy trucks have dramatically dropped in October and November 2025. Moreover, the 12-month moving average also dropped considerably.