One last poll of the year! Alas it’s FindOutNow, but I guess in the absence of any other polling (not like we have an election in six months for two parliaments, but all the British media care about is the finest-grained details about exactly how much of a drubbing their weirdo “gas them all” fox-hunting enthusiast pal will give the world’s least kind human rights lawyer) this is all we’ve got.
VERY unusual movement on the list, I’m wondering if it’s FindOutNow finally tweaking their methodology and realising that a 6% ALBA vote when they have literally one elected official left in the country might not be realistic.
First prompting for Your Party as well and.. not exactly the strong start many would have hoped for. Alas.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Reform are being undercounted in these polls.
Always seemed to be the case in the past with the Conservatives, that you’d get the ‘silent’ voters who’d not publicly admit to voting for them which I think will be the case for some Reform voters.
As should always be posted when FindOutNow is featured:
>FON surveys rely on PMP members to answer questions as they visit the site. PMP members are incentivised to visit the site daily to earn bonuses and claim any giveaway winnings. They do this by participating with site activities and one of these activities is answering survey questions if they so choose. PMP therefore collects responses passively and does not actively invite respondents. The collection process runs continuously as a data stream and FON can collect up to 100,000 responses a day. Thanks to the large quantity of streaming responses that originate from different parts of the UK and various demographic backgrounds, the responses collected are a sufficiently random sample.
>PMP, short for Pick My Postcode, is the UK’s biggest free daily giveaway site. It is a free to enter daily postcode draw platform available to all UK citizens. There are five daily Pick My Postcode lottery draws: the main draw, the video draw, survey draw, stackpot and bonus draw. A new winning postcode for each draw is selected every day and therefore PMP members are incentivised to visit daily.
Just the traditional reminder that FindOutNow has a *hilarious* methodology that exclusively polls people filling in free online lotteries every day, and treats the responses of that cohort as representative of the electorate as a whole.
They are not a serious polling organisation. They are a market research firm that publishes knowingly misleading but headline-generating polls in order to drive traffic to their actual business.
It’s pretty obvious that Farage and his party will dilute the unionist vote even further.
The SNP voters mostly think Farage is dirty little racist.
The SNP could win a majority in the constituency vote…….Jackie Baillie won with a very small majority last time.
Diluting the unionist vote even further will benefit the SNP not any of the English parties
Some months ago, Mr Swinney was promoting the idea that an absolute majority of SNP MSPs (matching the situation in 2011), would be the goal to shoot for, as it would be an excellent position to advocate for another referendum.
What’s the current position on that idea ? Has it changed ?
Sarwar surge. ðŸ¤
Quickly becoming a choice between a reform UK and a centre left independent Scotland. I know what bed I am getting in. Or…more realistically we have no choice in Scotland as we will never have another chance to vote.
>On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 21%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 14%, followed by the Tories, LibDems, and Greens who were all tied on 9%. Alba polled at 2% in the constituencies, while Jeremy Corbyn’s fledgling Your Party scored 0%.
>On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 30%, while Reform UK again polled at 21%. Scottish Labour polled at 12%, while the Greens scored 13%. The Tories were on 10%, the LibDems 9%, Alba 3%, and Your Party 1%.
So on constituency vote 53% of the electorate vote for explicitly non-independence parties.
On regional vote 52% of the electorate vote for explicitly non-independence parties.
But the headline is: “Scotland to elect large pro-independence majority in 2026, poll finds”?
😂😂😂😂😂
Sorry, am I right in saying that by this poll the SNP will lose five seats compared to 2021, the Greens will gain five, and that “large pro-independence majority” is, for the two nationalist parties combined, exactly the same as it was previously?
If a coalition of parties is required to keep Reform out at the next general election that includes the SNP this may be the avenue to guarantee another independence referendum.
The National. They’re just saying what their readership want to hear so they can sell papers and subscriptions.
I mean thats gonna happen when the pro Independence vote is so concentrated in one party. And I don’t think we will either see a ‘united unionists’ party.
Yeah except there’s 5 pro independence parties running, but it will likely just be the SNP and Greens who get seats. And look how that worked out last time.
The backers of Reform are seeing their plans come together
In my (non clinical) job, with a large healthcare provider 😉 more and more I’m hearing people expressing anti immigration sentiments combined with pro Reform UK support ” it’s time to give them a chance, as all the rest have tried and failed”
So I’m not counting any chickens on early polls, especially if Labour and the Tories look like failing, I think Reform UK could provide a few shocks.
Just another of the drawbacks of having well funded political parties based in another country influencing our elections.
To be expected considering the trend down south imo.
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Archive at https://archive.ph/scYQI
One last poll of the year! Alas it’s FindOutNow, but I guess in the absence of any other polling (not like we have an election in six months for two parliaments, but all the British media care about is the finest-grained details about exactly how much of a drubbing their weirdo “gas them all” fox-hunting enthusiast pal will give the world’s least kind human rights lawyer) this is all we’ve got.
(Changes from 01-08/10)
Constituency:
* SNP 34 (-1)
* REF 21 (+5)
* LAB 14 (-3)
* GRN 9 (NC)
* CON 9 (+1)
* LDEM 9 (-1)
* ALBA 2 (NC)
* YP 0 (NEW)
List
* SNP 30 (+9)
* REF 21 (+5)
* GRN 13 (-3)
* LAB 12 (-3)
* CON 10 (-1)
* LDEM 9 (-1)
* ALBA 3 (-3)
* YP 1 (NEW)
This is predicted to lead to (changes since SP2021)
* SNP 59 (-5)
* REF 25 (+25)
* GRN 13 (+5)
* LAB 12 (-10)
* CON 12 (-19)
* LDEM 8 (+3)
VERY unusual movement on the list, I’m wondering if it’s FindOutNow finally tweaking their methodology and realising that a 6% ALBA vote when they have literally one elected official left in the country might not be realistic.
First prompting for Your Party as well and.. not exactly the strong start many would have hoped for. Alas.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Reform are being undercounted in these polls.
Always seemed to be the case in the past with the Conservatives, that you’d get the ‘silent’ voters who’d not publicly admit to voting for them which I think will be the case for some Reform voters.
As should always be posted when FindOutNow is featured:
https://findoutnow.co.uk/find-out-now-panel-methodology/#collection
>FON surveys rely on PMP members to answer questions as they visit the site. PMP members are incentivised to visit the site daily to earn bonuses and claim any giveaway winnings. They do this by participating with site activities and one of these activities is answering survey questions if they so choose. PMP therefore collects responses passively and does not actively invite respondents. The collection process runs continuously as a data stream and FON can collect up to 100,000 responses a day. Thanks to the large quantity of streaming responses that originate from different parts of the UK and various demographic backgrounds, the responses collected are a sufficiently random sample.
>PMP, short for Pick My Postcode, is the UK’s biggest free daily giveaway site. It is a free to enter daily postcode draw platform available to all UK citizens. There are five daily Pick My Postcode lottery draws: the main draw, the video draw, survey draw, stackpot and bonus draw. A new winning postcode for each draw is selected every day and therefore PMP members are incentivised to visit daily.
Just the traditional reminder that FindOutNow has a *hilarious* methodology that exclusively polls people filling in free online lotteries every day, and treats the responses of that cohort as representative of the electorate as a whole.
They are not a serious polling organisation. They are a market research firm that publishes knowingly misleading but headline-generating polls in order to drive traffic to their actual business.
It’s pretty obvious that Farage and his party will dilute the unionist vote even further.
The SNP voters mostly think Farage is dirty little racist.
The SNP could win a majority in the constituency vote…….Jackie Baillie won with a very small majority last time.
Diluting the unionist vote even further will benefit the SNP not any of the English parties
Some months ago, Mr Swinney was promoting the idea that an absolute majority of SNP MSPs (matching the situation in 2011), would be the goal to shoot for, as it would be an excellent position to advocate for another referendum.
What’s the current position on that idea ? Has it changed ?
Sarwar surge. ðŸ¤
Quickly becoming a choice between a reform UK and a centre left independent Scotland. I know what bed I am getting in. Or…more realistically we have no choice in Scotland as we will never have another chance to vote.
>On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 21%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 14%, followed by the Tories, LibDems, and Greens who were all tied on 9%. Alba polled at 2% in the constituencies, while Jeremy Corbyn’s fledgling Your Party scored 0%.
>On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 30%, while Reform UK again polled at 21%. Scottish Labour polled at 12%, while the Greens scored 13%. The Tories were on 10%, the LibDems 9%, Alba 3%, and Your Party 1%.
So on constituency vote 53% of the electorate vote for explicitly non-independence parties.
On regional vote 52% of the electorate vote for explicitly non-independence parties.
But the headline is: “Scotland to elect large pro-independence majority in 2026, poll finds”?
😂😂😂😂😂
Sorry, am I right in saying that by this poll the SNP will lose five seats compared to 2021, the Greens will gain five, and that “large pro-independence majority” is, for the two nationalist parties combined, exactly the same as it was previously?
If a coalition of parties is required to keep Reform out at the next general election that includes the SNP this may be the avenue to guarantee another independence referendum.
The National. They’re just saying what their readership want to hear so they can sell papers and subscriptions.
I mean thats gonna happen when the pro Independence vote is so concentrated in one party. And I don’t think we will either see a ‘united unionists’ party.
Yeah except there’s 5 pro independence parties running, but it will likely just be the SNP and Greens who get seats. And look how that worked out last time.
The backers of Reform are seeing their plans come together
In my (non clinical) job, with a large healthcare provider 😉 more and more I’m hearing people expressing anti immigration sentiments combined with pro Reform UK support ” it’s time to give them a chance, as all the rest have tried and failed”
So I’m not counting any chickens on early polls, especially if Labour and the Tories look like failing, I think Reform UK could provide a few shocks.
Just another of the drawbacks of having well funded political parties based in another country influencing our elections.
To be expected considering the trend down south imo.
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