Greg Boland, international analyst, talked with Proactive about the defining global market events of 2025 and the outlook heading into 2026.
Boland identified three major global developments that shaped 2025: Donald Trump’s unexpected tariff increases, the escalation of international conflicts including the 12-day Iran-Israel war, and the rapid acceleration of the AI sector. The market reacted sharply to the Trump tariffs, particularly in April, with a major 20% dip followed by a V-shaped recovery.
“The Trump tariffs definitely had a huge effect on markets,” Boland said, citing significant volatility with the VIX spiking to 68 during the period.
He also discussed how the AI boom drove market concentration in top tech stocks, though recent months have seen a shift towards smaller-cap and real-world economy sectors. Boland noted a potential breakout in the S&P 500, supported by improving sentiment, falling interest rates, and strong performances in commodities like gold and silver.
Looking ahead to 2026, Boland believes rate policy and US election cycles will be key market drivers. Sectors such as financials, materials, and small caps appear well-positioned. He also addressed seasonal patterns like the Santa Rally and January Effect, noting how investor psychology may support early-year strength.
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