ST. LOUIS—Here’s a look at ten of the biggest political stories impacting the St. Louis region we’ll be following in 2026. We’re going to try and take them in chronological order.

The Next Sheriff

Although there’s a possibility for an appeal to a judge’s ruling, 2025 ended with the end of St. Louis Sheriff Alfred Montgomery’s short and rocky tenure in office. Who will appoint a permanent replacement pending a special election? Gov. Mike Kehoe, Mayor Cara Spencer and the Board of Aldermen have all laid claim to the responsibility, a decision that is already in court. Former St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department Chief John Hayden was appointed by the court as the interim sheriff during Montgomery’s quo warranto trial. He had Mayor Cara Spencer’s support and has suggested that he would want the job on a permanent basis. There’s a chance whoever is elected could be the last one elected. A bill filed in the State Senate would shift the job to one appointed by the courts instead of elected by the public.

The General Assembly

Lawmakers return to Jefferson City for the start of the legislative session on Jan. 7. Less than a week later on Jan. 13, Gov. Kehoe will release his budget proposal for the 2027 fiscal year budget, give his State of the State address and unveil a plan to eliminate the state’s income tax. All of this happens as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle deal with some deep scar tissue left over from 2025. In the Senate, Democrats heavily criticized Republicans for “moving the previous question”, a parliamentary maneuver to end debate used often in the House but rarely in the Senate. But it happened there on multiple occasions in 2025 to pass legislation,s rolling back voter-backed paid sick leave and minimum wage increases, along with a joint resolution that puts a new abortion ban back on the ballot in 2026.

It was also used to get newly-drawn congressional maps across the finish line. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle held their nose and passed stadium incentives designed to keep the Chiefs and Royals in Missouri. The Chiefs announced their departure after the 2030 season anyway and it’s still possible the Royals could follow. Republicans maintain a supermajority in both chambers, but it’s fair to wonder what sort of big-ticket legislative agenda items will get done outside of the budget.

Redistricting

Speaking of those new congressional maps….The legal battle over them will play out in multiple courtrooms around the state. Are they legal? Are they in effect? Will there be a referendum? When? Some of those questions could come to a head as soon as late February, when filing for the August primary elections opens, since in theory, candidates would want to know the boundary of the district they’re trying to represent–although in Missouri, one need not live in their district.

Illinois Primaries

There are 75 days between Jan. 1 and the March 17 primary election in Illinois. Two of the races will take up the most oxygen. Who emerges in the GOP primary for governor in a field that includes 2022 nominee Darren Bailey, DuPage Co. Sheriff James Mendrick, Ted Dabrowski, a conservative publisher and video gaming mogul Rick Heidner. The winner will likely be a significant underdog against incumbent JB Pritzker, who is seeking a third term. In the Democratic primary to succeed longtime Sen. Dick Durbin, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Rep. Robin Kelly are the leading candidates. The winner will be a heavy favorite over any GOP candidate to win the seat.

A new St. Louis County Executive

Sam Page set off what one political observer called “an earthquake” when he announced in late December that he won’t seek a third term as St. Louis County Executive. His legal team insists the decision is unrelated to a criminal trial Page faces this spring on election law and stealing charges tied to a mailer from the 2025 April election. Page faced a Democratic challenge from State Sen. Brian Williams. We should find out early in 2026 if Williams will be joined by County Assessor Jake Zimmerman in the August primary. Will other significant Democrats enter the race? Will the now-unsettled contest encourage other Republicans to join County Councilman Dennis Hancock in a GOP primary?

Bell vs. Bush 2.0

Two years after Wesley Bell and Cori Bush engaged in one of the most expensive congressional primaries ever, with Bell emerging victorious, Bush is back for a rematch. Her argument is that her brand of advocacy, which included camping out in front of the U.S. Capitol protesting the end of a COVID-era eviction moratorium, is a better match for the political moment than Bell, who has taken a more traditional approach to attempting oversight of the Trump administration while in the political minority. The U.S. Supreme Court will decide a case by the end of the current term in June that could trigger a new round of redistricting if it overturns majority-minority congressional districts, including MO1 in the St. Louis area. How and when that could manifest itself is still very much unclear.

Changing of the guard in St. Charles County?

Steve Ehlmann partially upended the GOP primary for County Executive in St. Charles County when he announced he would run for a new term in 2026 after previously saying he would not. County Councilman Mike Elam dropped out of the race rather than run against his mentor, but several candidates, including former State Sen. Bill Eigel and former Lake St. Louis Mayor Jason Law, remain. The winner will be heavily favored in November. No Democrat has filed paperwork necessary to raise money for a campaign.

Abortion

Two years after Missouri voters rolled back a state law that effectively ended elective abortion in the state, they’ll see a new statewide question that would reimpose a new ban, but with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. The vote will come as abortion advocates and the state attorney general’s office are still litigating the impact of the 2024 campaign, and whether that vote should negate abortion-related protocols. Advocates for the 2026 measure will include Gov. Kehoe and the First Lady, Claudia Kehoe, who is treasurer for a political action committee backing its passage. U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., has also formed an advocacy organization with his wife, Erin, which he promises will be active in support of the measure here in Missouri and around the country.

Wave election or not?

History tells us that second-term presidents historically haven’t fared well in midterm election years. It’s one of the reasons why President Donald Trump has pushed for states like Missouri to redraw congressional boundaries and protect a razor-thin GOP majority in the U.S. House. Trump isn’t on the ballot in name, but the rest of his presidency could be in many ways. Democratic control of the House would mean increased oversight and potentially new articles of impeachment that are likely to go nowhere in a Senate still held by Republicans. National Democrats have poured resources in Missouri before in an attempt to unseat Rep. Ann Wagner in her suburban St. Louis district. Her seat is on a target list again. So is the GOP supermajority in both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. What will the makeup of it all look like after November?

2028

If “shadow primaries” for the 2028 presidential election are already underway, November’s results could further fuel or derail White House ambitions for Pritzker and Hawley. A Pritzker loss would likely take him out of the 2028 field entirely. Will California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s aggressive move to counter the Trump redistricting push pay off in a way that gives him the “governor’s lane” to a 2028 bid over the likes of Pritzker and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro? On the Republican side, if the midterm is a referendum on President Trump and the GOP retains control of the House, does it bolster 2028 hopefuls in the administration including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the point of crowding out Hawley, who in addition to his pro-life stand on abortion has carved out a populist streak in recent years? A GOP loss of control could lead to something of a free for all, with Hawley and Senators like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz finding their way into the field.