China’s big bet on green technologies will inform its 2026 economic, geopolitical and energy developments. But such a heavy focus on new energy comes with its own set of risks. Beijing and Chinese companies are learning how to navigate overcapacity issues at home and abroad. But the rush to mine and process rare earths in resource-rich countries is putting these countries at the center of a new geopolitical competition between China and the West. Meanwhile, despite its new energy revolution, China is still nowhere near quenching its thirst for oil — even if its gasoline and diesel demand has peaked — and will remain a major oil market to watch next year.
