International Monetary Fund (IMF)The International Monetary Fund has projected a more resilient economic outlook for Ghana in 2026, following the completion of the fifth review under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement on December 17, 2025.
The review unlocked approximately US$385 million in disbursements, bringing Ghana’s total disbursements under the arrangement to about US$2.8 billion.
The IMF Executive Board described Ghana’s performance under the programme as broadly satisfactory, citing progress in macroeconomic stabilisation, debt restructuring, and external sector resilience despite earlier policy slippages.
According to IMF projections, growth in 2026 is projected at 4.8 percent, building on stronger than anticipated performance in the first half of 2025. Growth was underpinned by strong services activity and agricultural output, while the external sector improved noticeably on robust exports, particularly gold and cocoa.
A major milestone is that inflation has returned to single digits for the first time since 2021, now within the Bank of Ghana’s target range. IMF Deputy Managing Director Bo Li stated, “The Bank of Ghana has successfully brought inflation within its target range and rebuilt international reserve buffers, while cautiously easing the monetary policy stance”.
The Fund cautioned that further institutional reforms remain essential. “Looking ahead, strengthening central bank independence, discontinuing quasi fiscal activities, and deepening foreign exchange markets, while reducing the Bank of Ghana’s footprint, remain priorities,” Li added.
On the fiscal front, the primary balance for the first eight months of 2025 posted a surplus of 1.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), on track to achieve the 1.5 percent of GDP target by year end. The authorities are committed to adopting a 2026 budget targeting a 1.5 percent of GDP primary surplus on a commitment basis, in line with the recently adopted Fiscal Responsibility Framework.
All quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets for the fifth review were met. Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson described the IMF Executive Board decision as another major milestone in Ghana’s economic recovery journey, representing a clear vote of confidence in government’s reform agenda.
However, vulnerabilities persist in the financial sector. Li acknowledged progress in bank recapitalisation efforts but warned, “It is critical to strengthen governance in state owned banks, fully leverage the bank resolution framework, develop contingency plans for banks that fail to recapitalise, ensure cost effective resolution of legacy issues, and implement robust supervisory strategies.”
International reserves accumulation continues to exceed ECF supported programme targets, while the cedi appreciated markedly in the first half of the year. Provisional central bank data suggest reserves could exceed 13 billion dollars by end 2025.
The comprehensive debt restructuring is progressing well. Following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with the Official Creditor Committee under the G20 Common Framework, bilateral agreements have been concluded with five countries.
The IMF emphasised that continued reform implementation will be critical. The authorities are committed to strengthening governance and public sector efficiency, with efforts to improve transparency and oversight needing to continue, particularly in the management of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the gold, cocoa, and energy sectors.