A close-up photo of a digital market display screen with visible pixels. The screen shows the words 'Propane', 'Oil', and 'Gas' in white text. A large, bright green arrow points upwards next to 'Oil', indicating a positive trend. A red downward arrow is partially visible above 'Oil', and another green upward arrow is partially visible below 'Oil' next to 'Gas'.

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BOIL fell 53% this year but surged nearly 50% in days during a recent natural gas bounce.

Golden Pass LNG targets full capacity in 2026. Global LNG supply is forecast to surge 7%.

Daily rebalancing and contango drag erode BOIL over time. Backwardation would amplify gains.

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When a leveraged natural gas ETF drops 53% in a year, most investors flee. But that brutal decline in ProShares Trust II (NYSEARCA:BOIL) might set up a compelling contrarian play for 2026. This ETF delivers twice the daily performance of the Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex, amplifying both pain and pleasure. After natural gas collapsed from over $5 per MMBtu in early December to around $3.66 by mid-month, BOIL was crushed. But the same leverage that destroyed it on the way down could launch it higher when fundamentals flip.

An infographic titled 'BOIL: Leveraged Natural Gas ETF Overview (NYSEARCA: BOIL)' provides details about the ETF. Section 1, 'How BOIL Works,' illustrates a natural gas pipe splitting into '2x Daily Performance' and a 'Daily Reset' loop, with text explaining it tracks 2x daily performance with daily resets. Section 2, 'Most Suitable Use Case,' shows the Earth with a gas flame and arrows, stating it's for short-term bullish bets on natural gas price recovery, detailing YTD decline, recent volatility, and 2026 catalysts. Section 3, 'Pros & Cons,' is presented in two columns: 'Pro' in a green box lists 'Amplified Returns,' 'High Upside Potential,' and 'Oversold Condition.' 'Con' in a red box lists 'Extreme Volatility,' 'Volatility Decay,' 'Contango Risk,' and 'High Risk.' A key at the bottom states it requires careful timing and active management and is not a buy-and-hold investment.

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An overview of the BOIL Leveraged Natural Gas ETF, explaining its 2x daily performance, ideal short-term use, and inherent risks and rewards, emphasizing the need for active management.

The biggest catalyst for natural gas in 2026 is the massive wave of liquefied natural gas export capacity coming online that will transform U.S. natural gas from a regional commodity into a global one. Golden Pass LNG is targeting full capacity in 2026, while Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility is ramping toward commercial operations. The International Energy Agency forecasts global LNG supply will surge 7% in 2026, the largest increase since 2019.

That supply increase won’t flood the market and crash prices. The IEA forecasts it will unlock massive price-sensitive demand in India and Southeast Asia that has been sidelined. After a soft 2025 where high spot prices deterred Asian buyers, lower international LNG prices in 2026 could create a higher floor for U.S. Henry Hub prices as export terminals pull more domestic gas toward international markets. Ukraine’s confirmed halt of Russian gas transit on January 1, 2025 only tightens European supply further, positioning U.S. exports as the gap-filler.

Watch the monthly EIA Natural Gas Monthly report and the IEA’s quarterly Gas Market Report for updates on export terminal ramp-ups and global demand patterns.

BOIL’s 2x daily leverage structure is both its greatest asset and its Achilles heel. The ETF has lost over 99% of its value over the past decade because daily rebalancing and volatility decay erode returns over time. When natural gas dropped 27.6% from early December’s peak to the December 22 low, BOIL fell 38%. But when natural gas bounced 11% from those lows, BOIL surged nearly 50% in just days.

The micro factor to watch is the contango structure of natural gas futures. BOIL holds futures contracts that must be rolled monthly. When the futures curve is in contango (later-dated contracts cost more), that roll creates a drag on returns. Conversely, backwardation (spot prices higher than future prices) provides a tailwind. Check ProShares’ monthly fact sheets and the CME’s natural gas futures curve to monitor this structure. In tight supply environments, backwardation tends to emerge, which would benefit BOIL significantly.

If BOIL’s volatility feels excessive, United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEARCA:UNG) offers 1x unleveraged exposure to the same underlying commodity. With $540 million in assets and a 1.24% expense ratio, UNG provides similar upside potential without the daily reset risk that makes BOIL unsuitable for long-term holding. UNG is down roughly 22% year-to-date compared to BOIL’s 53% decline.

The most important macro factor for BOIL in 2026 is whether the LNG export surge creates sustained demand for U.S. natural gas, while the critical micro signal is whether futures markets shift into backwardation as supply tightens, both of which would amplify gains through BOIL’s 2x leverage structure.

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