(Bloomberg) — Oil flickered between modest gains and losses on the first trading day of 2026 as expectations for a swelling supply surplus offset geopolitical risks to production in several OPEC+ nations.
Brent crude futures (BZ=F) traded near $61 a barrel, after capping an 18% slump in 2025 — the biggest loss since 2020 — while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) was a little above $57. Middle Eastern markets, including derivatives like the regional Dubai benchmark, faltered amid heavy selling pressure on a key trading window in Asian trading hours, traders familiar with the matter said
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Faced with a seasonal lull in consumption, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is leaning toward caution. Key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia will convene online on Jan. 4, when they are expected to reaffirm a decision to pause supply increases during the first quarter.
Prices slumped in 2025 as both OPEC+ and competitors ranging from the US to Guyana bolstered output while demand growth slowed. The International Energy Agency has forecast a glut of about 3.8 million barrels a day for this year. That’s tempering the threats to oil supplies across assorted countries of the OPEC+ grouping.
President Donald Trump said the US will “rescue” protesters if Iran shoots or kills them, according to a post on Truth Social. Tehran and other cities have seen a wave of demonstrations after the local currency collapsed to a record low. President Masoud Pezeshkian has sought to appease the crowds by pledging to revise planned tax increases, acknowledging they have “legitimate demands.”
Trump’s administration has stepped up a campaign against Venezuela’s oil exports by sanctioning companies in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with vessels accused of evading curbs. The moves are part of a drive to raise the pressure on the regime of Nicolas Maduro.
Russia made a formal diplomatic request that the US stop its pursuit of a tanker that had been sailing for the South American nation to pick up oil, but is now fleeing from the Coast Guard in a chase across the Atlantic Ocean, the New York Times reported. The ship, known as the Bella 1, had started its journey in Iran.
Following a significant military build-up in the region, the US has imposed a partial blockade on oil vessels calling at Venezuela, and also struck an alleged drug-related facility inside the country.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine attacked each other’s Black Sea ports over the new year period, damaging infrastructure including a refinery. The conflict has impacted energy flows from Kazakhstan, another nation in the OPEC+ alliance.