For the first time an international study published on Nature Climate Change estimated how many glaciers will disappear by the end of the century, simulating three global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +4 °C compared to pre-industrial levels.
Even in the best case scenario, with an increase (now utopian for many experts) of 1.5 °C, half of the glaciers would disappear. In the worst scenario, with +4 °C, less than a tenth would remain.
Glaciers halved (at best). The worst situation is right next to our home: with global warming of 1.5 °C only 430 Alpine glaciers would remain out of the current 3,000; at +2°C they would drop to 270, while at +4°C just 20 would remain. At a global level the picture is similar: by containing warming to +1.5°C 100,000 glaciers would survive, while at +4°C the figure would drop to 18,000.
Peak extinction. Researchers coined the term Peak Glacier Extinctionthat is to say peak of glacier extinction, the time when annual glacier loss will reach its maximum.
With global warming of +1.5 °C we would achieve this point of no return in 2041, when we would lose around 2,000 glaciers in a year. With +4 °C the peak would slide to 2055, but the number of disappeared glaciers would rise to 4,000.
The reason for the (only apparent) paradox? The fact that with higher temperatures not only small glaciers disappear, but also large ones, which take longer to melt completely. However, when they collapse, the amount of glaciers disappearing in the same year doubles.
Every 0.1°C counts. The message is clear: While slowing global warming won’t stop glaciers melting, every tenth of a degree counts.
Keeping global warming within +1.5°C drastically reduces losses. “The results underline how urgent it is to take ambitious climate action,” says Daniel Farinotti, one of the authors of the research.