Research by Kasikorn Research Centre estimates that once CBAM moves into its paid phase in 2026, the initial impact could equal about 3.8% of Thailand’s exports to the EU, or roughly 28 billion baht.
The biggest hit is expected to fall on steel and aluminium, while the impact on cement and fertilisers is expected to be limited because Thailand exports relatively small volumes of those products to the EU.
In practice, exporters may also face additional burdens beyond the carbon price itself—especially the costs of collecting, calculating and verifying product-level emissions data under Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) requirements, and coordinating with EU importers to ensure CBAM certificates are purchased and surrendered in line with the rules.
Risk—and opportunity—for low-carbon steel
Bantoon said CBAM is not only a threat but also a potential opportunity for Thai producers with low embedded carbon, particularly firms using electric arc furnace (EAF) technology and recycled scrap as feedstock.
FTI data for January–October 2025 show Thailand’s exports of iron and steel products to the EU rose by more than 250% year on year. Part of the increase, he said, reflects growing EU demand for lower-carbon steel as importers prepare supply chains ahead of CBAM’s full application.
“Thai EAF steel can help reduce a buyer’s carbon-related costs in the EU by 5–10% of the product’s value,” he said, adding that the advantage could widen over time and potentially reach around 20% within a few years.
What the industry wants
To respond, Bantoon said Thai steel producers need to accelerate factory- and product-level MRV systems, increase the use of renewable electricity through power purchase agreements (PPAs) or onsite solar, and strengthen traceability across supply chains.
He added that the sector is also seeking government support, including efforts to have the EU recognise accredited verifiers in Thailand, progress on a Climate Change Act and an emissions trading system (ETS), and policies to prioritise domestic use of scrap steel and scrap aluminium to help build higher-value low-carbon products.
“CBAM is a mechanism that is effectively sorting winners from losers in the global steel industry,” Bantoon said. “If Thailand adapts in time, it can not only defend existing markets but also use low carbon as an advantage to expand exports over the long term.”