Severe slump in European and American markets! Global electric vehicle sales growth this year is expected to hit a new low since the pandemic.

Cailian Press, January 4 (Editor: Xiaoxiang) A recent report indicates that the growth rate of global electric vehicle sales in 2026 is expected to reach its lowest level since the pandemic affected the global economy in 2020, as the transition away from fuel-powered vehicles faces new obstacles.

According to a forecast by research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, global electric vehicle sales (including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids) are expected to grow by only 13% to 24 million units in 2026 due to a significant slowdown in the European market and a sharp contraction in the U.S. market, far lower than the estimated 22% growth rate in 2025.

Corporate executives and analysts have pointed out that factors such as the Trump administration’s elimination of electric vehicle tax incentives and the EU’s relaxation of its planned 2035 ban on fuel-powered vehicles will all influence the fate of the industry this year.

Previously, the explosive demand for electric vehicles led by China had once signaled the rapid decline of fuel-powered vehicles, which have been the backbone of the global automotive industry’s profits for more than a century.

According to forecasts by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, after U.S. electric vehicle sales reached a record 1.5 million units in 2025, they are expected to drop by 29% to 1.1 million units this year.

After an estimated 33% growth in European electric vehicle sales in 2025, the growth rate this year is also expected to slow to 14% — reaching 4.9 million units.

In China, the world’s largest electric vehicle market, sales this year are expected to reach 15.5 million units, up from 13.3 million units in 2025. However, despite maintaining double-digit growth, the expected growth rate in the Chinese market will also be lower than the levels seen in the five years prior to 2025. During that period, sales of electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, surged from about 1.1 million units to over 13 million units.

Last year, Chinese manufacturers represented by BYD drove sales growth in their domestic and European markets by launching more affordable models, leveraging price advantages to suppress traditional European and American automakers.

Data released earlier this week showed that BYD has surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer in 2025, with the Chinese company continuing to expand in Europe and other overseas markets.

Electric vehicles face cooling demand

The report shows that industry executives generally expect the sales of hybrid and plug-in hybrid models to continue rebounding this year, as insufficient charging infrastructure has deterred consumers from purchasing pure electric vehicles. Consequently, hybrid models are increasingly gaining favor.

Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, stated, ‘Both European and American markets have realized that partial electrification is just as appealing as full electrification.’

A sign of intense volatility in the U.S. market is Ford’s disclosure last month of a $195 billion write-down after abandoning several all-electric models—including its flagship product, the F-150 all-electric pickup truck—and shifting focus to more profitable hybrid and internal combustion engine-based models.

Farley stated that the market share of electric vehicles in the U.S. new car market may drop from about 10% last year to 5% in the near term.

In stark contrast to the U.S. market, most automotive executives predict that China’s electric vehicle market will maintain growth through 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. Sales in China may still benefit from broader stimulus measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and local government investments in charging infrastructure. UBS Group forecasts an 8% increase in sales in the Chinese market this year, including both pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

Industry executives indicated that the challenging outlook for this year means automakers must continuously adjust their product portfolios during the transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles.

Markus Haupt, CEO of Seat-Cupra, the Spanish mass-market brand under Volkswagen Group, stated that the group needs to maintain flexibility in its product portfolio during the transition. However, he added, ‘We firmly believe that the future belongs to electric vehicles. We need to achieve decarbonization in transportation.’

Editor/Liam