US-Venezuela conflict: Crude oil prices is likely to see a gap-up opening when the market opens on Monday, January 5, after Venezuela attacked by US, according to market experts.
“The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities,” said Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth.
Gupta further added that Brent Crude oil price is expected to touch $62 and $65 per barrel, on Monday, January 5. On Friday, Brent crude futures ended below $61 a barrel in subdued trading, while West Texas Intermediate closed above $57.
Market experts also believe that the US President can say anything to justify the US attacks on Venezuela but the reason behind this attacks is to ensure safety of the petro dollar regime.
“ The Venezuela government under the President Hugo Chávez had started to challenge this age old regime, which was not going down well for the US administration. Trump’s statement to control the oil reserves of Venezuela justifies this,” said Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital.
The recent US strike on Venezuela has drawn renewed attention to the country’s vast oil wealth. Venezuela holds more than 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—the largest in the world—yet output has fallen to around 1 million barrels per day amid US sanctions and years of underinvestment.
According to OPEC data, Venezuela’s proven reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, account for about 17% of global oil reserves. This places the country ahead of Saudi Arabia, which ranks second with roughly 267 billion barrels, and leaves Venezuela with reserves more than six times larger than those of the United States. Much of this untapped oil lies in the Orinoco Belt, a region spanning around 21,000 square miles across northeastern Venezuela, as reported by CBS News.
The ongoing conflict between US and Venezuela is unlikely to have any significant economic or energy implications for India, according to the India-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), as quoted by ANI.
In a note, GTRI said India was once a key purchaser of Venezuelan crude during the 2000s and 2010s, with Indian companies such as ONGC Videsh holding upstream interests in the Orinoco belt. However, bilateral ties have deteriorated sharply since 2019 following US sanctions, which compelled India to halt oil imports and scale back commercial engagement to avoid secondary sanctions.
Consequently, India’s trade with Venezuela has become minimal and continues to decline, GTRI said on Sunday— a day after US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela, detaining President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and transferring them to the US to face charges, including alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.
In 2024–25, India’s overall imports from Venezuela stood at only $364.5 million, with crude oil making up $255.3 million—a sharp 81.3% decline from $1.4 billion worth of crude imports in 2023–24.
Meanwhile, India’s exports to Venezuela remained limited at $95.3 million, driven mainly by pharmaceuticals worth $41.4 million, according to GTRI.
(With inputs from agencies)