This is the data:
The suggestion does have evidence to back it. The result would be a bank base rate close to neutral. In other words, it would be running at around the rate of inflation, assuming that continues its current downward trend.
Is this possible? Not in the opinion of the Bank of England. They predict nothing less than. 3.5% next year, but they ignore the very real risk of a recession. So, yes, I think this is plausible, and much more so than anything the Bank of England suggests, especially if, as I suspect, AI fails to deliver for stock markets and does hike inflation, as I note is possible this morning.
2026 is not, in other words, going to be an easy ride as antisocial neoliberalism continues to hold us in its death throes.