If the trade war escalates, global trade could slow and Thailand’s exports to China could weaken as a knock-on effect, he said. But he added that the picture is not purely negative. One offsetting channel is “trade diversion”: if US goods become harder or more expensive to sell into China, other exporters—including Thailand—could potentially capture some market share.
Whether Thailand can seize that opportunity depends on how quickly it can advance trade negotiations with the US to close gaps and make the most of shifting trade patterns, he said.
Amonthep also pointed to “relocation”, or companies shifting production bases out of China into ASEAN to reduce exposure to trade-war risks. Thailand needs to build investor confidence and strengthen its competitiveness to attract such investment, he said, warning that if it fails to do so, other countries in the region—such as Vietnam, Malaysia or Indonesia—may benefit more.
Broker view: oil and equities hit likely contained, OPEC in focus
In a separate assessment, broker CGS International (Thailand), or CGSI, said the US–Venezuela tensions were likely to have only a limited impact on global equities and oil prices and were unlikely to drag on, because oil production sites had not been directly damaged and supply remained available.
Kasem Prunratanamala, chief executive of CGSI’s securities analysis division, told Krungthep Turakij that the effect on oil prices remains difficult to gauge, given that Venezuela has faced sanctions for a long time. Still, he said markets should watch the risk that China could face disruptions to Venezuelan oil purchases and be forced to buy more from the wider market, which would lift demand and could push prices higher.
He also said attention is turning to an OPEC meeting expected in the coming days. If OPEC holds production steady in the first quarter while Chinese demand rises, oil prices could climb. If OPEC increases output, that could help offset the impact. Overall, he said, markets were unlikely to panic.
Kasem added that the tone in global equity markets remained broadly positive, with momentum carrying over from last year. Thailand’s stock market, however, was expected to remain range-bound, he said, with domestic political factors the main drag on a recovery—particularly in the first quarter.
Both Amonthep and Kasem said Thailand should focus on strengthening investor confidence and moving quickly on investment promotion and trade engagement to position the country for shifting trade patterns and potential supply-chain relocation.