語言:
English
Photo Credit: Molly Riley/White House/Public Domain
THE US CAPTURE of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has led to warnings that the unprecedented action could allow for further actions by China directed at Taiwan. That is, the US has now normalized the extrajudicial capture of a standing president, shortly after opening hostilities with Venezuela, without any declaration of war.
Indeed, immediate reactions on Chinese social media were that China could and should carry out a similar action directed at Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te. The capture of Maduro took place mere days after Chinese military drills conducted around Taiwan. For its part, the Chinese government officially calls on the US to release Maduro.
However, one notes that shortly before Maduro’s capture, China had escalated threats directed at DPP legislator Puma Shen. The Chinese government released satellite images of Shen’s home and office as its latest effort to intimidate Shen, known for his research on Chinese disinformation and his establishment of civil defense outfit Kuma Academy.
Shen has, consequently, been a special target of ire for the Chinese government. The Chinese government has otherwise sought to sanction Shen, as well as family members of his who work in China, on a number of occasions. In 2024, Shen reported being impersonated by individuals presumably acting at China’s behest, so as to gain entrance to conferences that Shen was attending. That Shen has been targeted so many times seems to indicate that China is concerned about the development of civil defense initiatives in Taiwan.
At the end of last year, China suggested that it would seek to arrest Shen through Interpol. Shen was framed as violating international law with his actions and the Chinese government claimed that an investigation against him was being carried out in Chongqing.
Interpol declined to carry out such actions and Shen continued to carry out diplomatic trips abroad, representing Taiwan. This would not be the first time that China has tried to weaponize international law enforcement agencies such as Interpol to target political dissidents or those otherwise critical of it. However, China’s actions are notable in seeking to project the perception that Taiwan is already part of China, as well as that international law recognizes Taiwan as under Chinese jurisdiction, such that it can arrest Taiwanese lawmakers.
It is to be seen if China would see fit to target Shen or a similar figure. For his part, Shen asserted on social media that China was not likely to be encouraged to take further action against Taiwan by events in Venezuela, given that China already frequently violates international law.
Certainly, it would be far more difficult for China to carry out any action similar to the kidnapping of Maduro, in spiriting away Lai. Some experts have raised that it would be more feasible that China, in fact, try to assassinate Lai compared to a kidnapping.
It should be remembered that China, in fact, already has targeted high-ranking Taiwanese government officials with kinetic action. In June 2025, it came to light that the preceding year, March 2024, China’s military attache in Prague had planned to ram a car into Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s motorcade. The plot was variously understood as an effort at intimidation or even an assassination attempt. Perhaps that should serve as a reminder that if targeting of Taiwanese political figures occurs in a Maduro-style scenario, if unlikely to take place within Taiwan’s borders, this is most likely to take place during diplomatic trips abroad.