According to an internal document of the German Federal Ministry of Defense, Russia is intensifying covert attacks on Germany’s critical infrastructure as part of a hybrid war. Berlin regards these actions as a potential prelude to a broader conflict that could erupt in the future.
The text emphasizes that, as it positions itself as NATO’s main hub in Europe, Germany expects that Russia will initially act covertly – irregularly or non-militarily – against energy and defense infrastructure.
The article also summarizes recommendations for coordination between different levels of government and institutions in the event of a conflict with Moscow.
“Identified hybrid measures and attacks, including those carried out in Germany, should be regarded as instruments deliberately employed by Russia in its security policy and in its fight against the ‘collective West.’ At the same time, these measures may also serve as preparation for a military conflict”
– German Federal Ministry of Defense
Threat Assessment and Future Scenarios
According to the Ministry of Defense, after a possible overt armed strike on NATO’s eastern flank, Germany could face an escalating threat of military means, including long-range missiles, attack drones, and special forces.
The document also emphasizes that the wording about the threat goes beyond previous recommendations and echoes the earlier warning by Martin Eger, the director of the BND, who in October stated that Russia intends to test Europe’s borders and could turn the conflict into a ‘hot confrontation’.
As the National Security Strategy notes, the Ministry of Defense regards Russia as the most significant and immediate threat to Germany’s security. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense declined to comment on the document titled “Germany’s Operational Plan” (OPLAN), but noted that Russia has intensified covert attacks on the country’s infrastructure.
The plan draws on national and foreign intelligence data, indicating Russia’s intent to develop capabilities and options for waging a full-scale war against NATO and to endure in such a configuration.
“Even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues as it is, it is expected that Russia will develop these capabilities and strategic options no later than 2029.”
– German Federal Ministry of Defense document
It is also stressed that Russia aims to avoid direct military confrontation with the United States and to limit itself to Europe.
In the event of Russia’s conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, Germany is not expected to become a border state or an arena for direct ground confrontation, but the Ministry of Defense notes that Russia will do everything to prevent or delay NATO forces’ deployment on the eastern flank for deterrence or defense.
In conclusion, the Ministry of Defense states that Russia deliberately uses hybrid actions aimed at provoking public concern and exposing weak points in the interaction between different levels of the German government.