Cold Europe/Western Russia Pattern Ahead

Issued: Tuesday January 6, 2026

Fig. 1-3: Developing cold in Early January expands in the 1-7-day forecast and intensifies in the 8-14-day period.

Discussion: Very cold weather is developing across France and Northwest Eurasia to begin the New Year (Fig. 1). The GFS 1-7-day forecast indicates expansive cold to very cold weather enhanced by widespread above normal snow cover (Fig. 2). Both GFS and ECM agree that arctic air becomes involved in the 8-14-day period adhering to East Europe and West Russia (Fig. 3). Snow cover is above normal as indicated by GFS for midday today (Fig. 4) and increases/deepens over the next 2 weeks (Fig. 5). A strip of stratospheric warming across Southern Eurasia inspires the frigid weather pattern enhanced by the deep snow cover. Probability is HIGH that 0F reaches Eastern Europe in the 6-10-day period. Very cold 10’s extends across Southwest Russia where ground is bare throughout the cold event raising crop concerns.

Fig. 4-5: GFS snow depth forecast across Europe/Western Russia for midday today and in 15 days.