Donald Trump has claimed credit for the latest surge in US stock markets, arguing that his trade war—and the tariffs that underpin it—are the driving force behind Wall Street’s record run.
In an all-caps post on Truth Social, the US president hailed the rally and urged the Supreme Court of the United States not to strike down his tariffs. “The USA markets just hit another ALL TIME HIGH – ALL OF THEM!!! THANK YOU YOU MISTER TARIFF!!!” he wrote, adding that America’s “national and financial security have never been stronger”.

It is true that markets have been pushing into record territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh all-time high yesterday, while the broader S&P 500 reached its highest level since Boxing Day.

But the claim that tariffs deserve the applause is, at best, debatable. The S&P 500 rose 16.4% over the course of 2025—solid, but slower than London’s FTSE 100—and the path higher has been anything but tariff-driven. In fact, markets sold off sharply last April when Mr Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, only rebounding after the measures were postponed.

Last year’s rally was powered instead by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and growing optimism that US interest rates will be cut. That optimism has been reinforced by Mr Trump’s appointment of a new, more dovish chair at the Federal Reserve, a move investors see as increasing the chances of easier monetary policy.

So while Mr Trump may relish the “Mister Tariff” nickname, Wall Street’s gains owe far more to AI fever and rate-cut hopes than to the trade war he is eager to celebrate.

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