From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the developing conflict between the United States and Venezuela, global political strife stands to redefine sourcing relationships in 2026, rivaling even U.S. tariffs as the most prominent factor impacting sourcing decisions for companies across the globe.

According to Dr. Sheng Lu, professor of fashion and apparel studies at the University of Delaware, geopolitics have the potential to further inhibit the development and expansion of international sourcing locales, creating fewer options for both American brands and foreign firms.

Speaking about the weekend capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military operatives, Lu said the upheaval and uncertainty spurred by the move could spook companies sourcing not just within the country, but within the hemisphere. “The action will create worries about the stability of the region, so I don’t think fashion companies will be encouraged to make additional investments,” he said, noting that the “ripple effects” of the military intervention could spill over into countries engaged in free trade agreements with the U.S.

Trump continues to threaten further action against regimes and governments he disagrees with. On Sunday, for example, the president suggested that Washington may have to step in militarily “do something” about Mexico’s cartel problem. At the same time, a review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is slated for July, and Trump has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the trilateral free trade accord as a means of addressing national security issues like drug smuggling and cartel activity—much the same factors cited by the president as justification for Maduro’s removal in Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Lu said European commerce and supply chains will likely continue to see the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “It’s not just an issue between the two countries; people worry what is happening within the entire region and whether it will disrupt their supply chains,” he said.

While Europe is a major producer of fashion products—and it consumes much of that output (about half of the apparel produced, Lu said)—the impacts of the war and the instability it has caused inhibit the movement of goods within the region. Add on top of that the effects of hefty U.S. tariffs on goods made in China and across Asia, and the European supply chain faces an influx of inexpensive wares once destined for U.S. shores.

It’s already happening, much to the chagrin of leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, who suggested last month that the European Union levy new duties on Chinese exports over growing trade imbalances he described as “unbearable” for European producers. Lu’s research showed that Chinese apparel exports to the EU grew 15 percent year over year in 2025 (while shipments of clothing from China to the U.S. declined by nearly 30 percent). Other Asian sourcing locales like Vietnam (17.6 percent) and Cambodia (26.1 percent) also saw considerable export growth to the European market.

Europe’s economic growth isn’t keeping pace with the deluge of foreign fashion, Lu added. The region’s GDP grew by 1.4 percent last year, while its apparel imports from across the globe increased by over 10 percent. By contrast, U.S. GDP rose 2 percent in 2025, and apparel imports only increased by 1.7 percent.

“The only reason I see Europe now seeing such a substantial increase of apparel imports is because a lot of Asian suppliers diverted their exports from the U.S. to Europe,” Lu said. As a result, “I think the risk of additional trade barriers imposed by EU against cheap products from Asia actually is building up,” he added, and that could lead to deepened tensions.

Despite that possibility—and the existing tariffs on Asian goods already in place in the U.S.—Lu still envisions Asia as the ultimate victor in this year’s sourcing shakeup. “I still think Asia benefits most” from current geopolitical tensions impacting the rest of the globe, he said—including second-tier emerging suppliers.

A number of countries increased their apparel exports to the U.S. market by double digits last year, including Bangladesh (18.6 percent), Vietnam (13.7 percent), Cambodia (28.5 percent), Indonesia (13.5 percent) and India (12.8 percent). Data released this week showed that Vietnam’s economy grew by 8 percent in 2025 on the back of U.S. exports, creating a record high trade surplus even though it faces 20 percent tariffs from Washington.

While the expansion of Asian supply chains was “not the intended consequence” of Trump’s tariff scheme, Lu said there are easy explanations for the region’s continued success as a sourcing hub. These supply chains are able to offer a wide breadth of products readily and scale production quickly. “They also have a more integrated regional supply chain,” he added, and essential economic investment from China.

For its part, China remains on “relatively stable” footing in apparel import markets outside the U.S. While American firms reduced exposure to China significantly in light of the 47 percent duties levied last year, in Canada and Japan, China still made up more than 30 percent of total apparel imports throughout the first 10 months of 2025. Within Europe and the United Kingdom, China’s market share grew about a percentage point year over year, hitting 28.1 percent in the EU and 24.8 percent in the U.K.

Looking to the future, Lu predicts that China’s influence will grow even more in 2026—and not just within the world’s biggest economies.

According to the World Trade Organization, China is swiftly diversifying its export base to emerging markets in Asia, South America and Africa, and it’s especially focused on members of its global infrastructure and economic development strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative.

Lu’s research showed that during the first 10 months of 2025, Chinese exports to Cambodia grew at an unorthodox pace of 4.4 percent from the year prior. The academic said the same through line persisted across a number of small export economies, including Indonesia (up 15.4 percent), Kenya (up 31.5 percent), Tanzania (up 52.8 percent), Chile (up 18.8 percent), and Mauritius (up 27.5 percent).

While these small markets each accounted for less than 10 percent of China’s total apparel export volume, the impacts on their local apparel industries could prove staggering if the trend continues. The symbiotic relationship with China—which supplies plenty of textile raw materials and inputs to these nations—could become more complicated, as an influx of China-made finished goods could suppress local producers.

“On the one hand, these countries try to have a good relationship with China, because China is a major source of investment. But at the same time, when cheap Chinese products enter these markets, it creates competition and pressure for the local apparel industry, and hurts the business of these apparel exporting countries,” Lu said.

And unlike markets like the EU, the U.K. or the U.S., “They don’t have leverage with China; they can’t set high trade barriers on Chinese products,” he added.

While China appears to be in pole position within the apparel industry—a distinction it’s enjoyed for years—Lu said the continuation or escalation of U.S. tariffs could force the country to further diversify its exports and seek out an array of new, smaller markets to make up for the drawdown in American business.

When it comes to sourcing in 2026, “There’s really no safe harbor out there in the world,” he surmised. Each region represents a gamble for companies, from “geopolitics or additional tariffs, to some unexpected factor not based on current situations or sourcing risks,” he said.