Published on
January 7, 2026
The tourism industry supports jobs, heritage preservation and foreign‑exchange earnings, but it is sensitive to border policies. 2024–2025 data show that small island or micro‑state consulates struggled to process short‑stay visa applications, leading to above‑average refusal rates. The European Commission’s 2024 Schengen visa statistics indicate that Malta recorded the highest share of refused short‑stay visas, while Estonia and Belgium also refused a larger share than the EU average. These refusal rates reflect limited consular capacity and rigorous checks rather than an unwillingness to host visitors. Meanwhile, Comoros and Turkmenistan, though outside the Schengen area, confront other barriers: Comoros has limited infrastructure and a fragile economy, and Turkmenistan’s travel regime has long limited entry and exit. This article assesses 2025 data from official sources and examines whether tourism could recover and visa refusal rates might ease from 2026 onward.
Comoros, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean, depends heavily on remittances and has historically attracted few international tourists. The International Monetary Fund’s 2023 Article IV report on Comoros (released in 2024) noted that the economy was recovering, helped by a rebound in tourism and ongoing public investment projects[1]. The report explained that resumption of social activities and tourism after pandemic restrictions were important drivers of growth, though the economy remained vulnerable to external shocks[2]. To broaden its revenue base, Comoros has developed a blue‑economy strategy with support from the World Bank. A 2025 World Bank press release reported that marine tourism could potentially quadruple visitor arrivals by 2030 and contribute over six per cent of GDP by mid‑century; services such as tourism and fisheries could account for two‑thirds of the economy by 2040[3]. The blue‑economy plan emphasises sustainable management of coastal ecosystems and aims to make Comoros a regional leader in marine tourism.
Comoros does not belong to the Schengen area, so travellers from the archipelago face visa decisions at foreign consulates. While comprehensive refusal statistics for Comorian applicants are not publicly available, the European Commission’s dataset confirms that consulates serving small island states often reject a higher share of applications because they lack staff and must rely on postal submission. For Comoros, the bigger challenge is attracting tourists. Infrastructure remains weak, and the country’s international image has been damaged by political instability. If the blue‑economy investments outlined above are implemented, they could improve transport links and tourism services. With careful planning and marketing, visitor numbers could rise after 2026, but the country must also ensure security and environmental protection.
Malta is a popular Mediterranean destination yet faces capacity constraints at its consulates. According to the European Commission’s 2024 visa statistics, Malta’s consular offices registered the highest refusal rate among Schengen states, rejecting more than one‑third of applications. Small consular networks must screen large volumes of tourists and migrant‑workers, and some applicants lack complete documentation. The high refusal rate does not reflect a general hostility to visitors; rather, it stems from resource limits.
Despite these visa bottlenecks, Malta’s tourism sector expanded in 2024–2025. The National Statistics Office (NSO) of Malta reported that inbound tourist arrivals totalled 417,103 in October 2025, a 17.3 % increase over October 2024[4]. Holidaymakers accounted for the majority of arrivals, and the first ten months of 2025 saw 3.49 million inbound tourists, up 12.4 % year‑on‑year[5]. An earlier NSO release showed that inbound tourists in 2024 reached 3.56 million, almost 20 % more than 2023; total tourist expenditure reached €3.3 billion and per‑capita spending approached €924[6]. These figures demonstrate that visitors are returning in large numbers despite visa hurdles.
Malta has introduced several measures to manage the influx and improve the quality of tourism. It has promoted a digital nomad residence permit and invested in sustainable tourism initiatives to distribute visitors across Gozo and Comino. The NSO noted that 59 % of tourists in 2025 visited these islands[5], suggesting success in diverting flows from overcrowded sites. Looking to 2026 and beyond, the Maltese government plans to expand consular capacity and digitalise visa processing. If these reforms reduce refusal rates, they could further boost arrivals. The challenge will be balancing quantity with preservation of Malta’s limited resources.
Estonia’s consulates also recorded above‑average refusal rates in the European Commission’s 2024 statistics. Like Malta, the Baltic state has few consular posts abroad and receives many applications from neighbouring countries. A higher refusal rate often reflects incomplete documentation rather than an intent to discourage tourism. Estonia’s authorities are exploring electronic visa (e‑visa) systems and regional consular cooperation to improve processing efficiency.
Official tourism statistics show that Estonia’s domestic and inbound tourism have bounced back strongly. Statistics Estonia (Statistikaamet) reported that in September 2025 accommodation establishments served 288 000 tourists, 4 % more than in September 2024[7]. Foreign tourists numbered around 157 000, while 131 000 domestic tourists stayed in establishments[7]. Domestic tourist numbers exceeded pre‑pandemic levels by nearly a quarter, and the average cost per guest night remained about €50[7]. Estonia has actively marketed itself as a digital society and nature‑tourism destination; projects such as the e‑Residency program and digital nomad visa aim to attract remote workers who can stay for extended periods.
By 2026, Estonia plans to expand its e‑visa pilot and simplify procedures for non‑EU travellers. If implemented, these reforms could lower refusal rates. Continued investment in sustainable tourism infrastructure—such as hiking trails, heritage preservation and eco‑friendly accommodation—should support growth while preserving the country’s forests and coastal areas. Based on current trends, Estonia’s tourism industry is likely to continue growing beyond 2026, though seasonality and geopolitical tensions could still affect arrivals.
Belgium benefits from its position at the heart of Europe and attractions like Brussels, Bruges and Ghent, yet its consular network processes a considerable number of visa applications from Africa and Asia. The European Commission’s data show that Belgium’s refusal rate is higher than that of larger Schengen countries but lower than Malta’s or Estonia’s. The reasons include rigorous scrutiny of documentation and limited appointment slots.
Tourism activity has recovered to, and in some cases surpassed, pre‑pandemic levels. Statistics Belgium (Statbel) reported that overnight stays in August 2025 totalled 6 034 940, 0.8 % higher than in August 2024[8]. Hotels accounted for about 35 % of stays, while holiday homes and apartments represented 21.2 % and camping grounds 16.7 %[8]. The Walloon Region recorded a 4.9 % increase in overnight stays, whereas the Flemish region saw a slight decline[8]. In September 2025 there were 3 794 598 overnight stays, up 0.6 % over the previous year[9]. Statbel’s table for 2024 shows that Belgium recorded 44.8 million overnight stays, with visitors from the Netherlands, Germany and France constituting a large share[10].
Belgium has adopted an action plan for sustainable tourism that emphasises decarbonisation, spread of visitor flows and promotion of lesser‑known destinations. The country is also upgrading consular software to align with the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). If the digital reforms reduce processing times and refusal rates, they could encourage more visitors from emerging markets. However, Belgium’s mature tourism industry is already near capacity in major cities; growth after 2026 will depend on diversification and sustainable practices rather than sheer volume.
Unlike the countries above, Turkmenistan is not part of the Schengen area and historically has one of the most closed visa regimes. Until 2024 foreign visitors needed letters of invitation approved by the government, and Turkmen citizens often faced restrictions on international travel. Human‑rights organisations have documented that authorities refuse to renew passports for citizens abroad and sometimes remove passengers from flights. International partners also imposed restrictions: in 2017 the United States suspended non‑immigrant visas for Turkmen nationals due to identity‑management concerns. This suspension was lifted in December 2025 when U.S. authorities acknowledged improved identity management but continued to restrict immigrant visas[11].
In 2025 Turkmenistan signalled an opening. During the Dushanbe International Tourism Exhibition (DITE‑2025), Turkmen tourism companies promoted the country’s attractions and discussed joint projects with foreign partners[12]. A government press release highlighted the diversity of natural landscapes and cultural heritage and stressed sustainable tourism and investment[12]. Moreover, a law on migration adopted on April 18 2025 introduced an electronic visa (e‑Visa) system. According to the official portal Turkmenportal, the decree allows foreigners to apply electronically without needing an invitation; the State Migration Service will manage the e‑visa, and categories and procedures will be defined by the president[13]. Removing the invitation requirement is a significant liberalisation that could attract more tourists and business travellers.
Turkmenistan’s tourism infrastructure remains underdeveloped, and political isolation deters many visitors. Whether the e‑visa system is fully implemented and whether it leads to a genuine opening will determine tourism prospects beyond 2026. If the government continues to restrict citizens’ movement and maintain strict surveillance, the tourist market will remain small. Conversely, if Turkmenistan aligns visa policies with international norms and invests in hospitality services, it could tap into the Silk Road heritage and natural attractions that it showcased at DITE‑2025.
Official data from 2024–2025 show that high visa rejection rates are concentrated in small states with limited consular capacity (Malta, Estonia, Belgium) rather than a deliberate policy to deter tourists. At the same time, these countries recorded strong tourism growth thanks to pent‑up demand, digital nomads and successful marketing campaigns. Each government has recognised the need to modernise visa processing by adopting electronic systems and increasing staffing. Malta’s ongoing consular reforms and investment in quality tourism, Estonia’s digital nomad initiatives, and Belgium’s sustainable tourism strategy could collectively reduce refusal rates and support continued growth after 2026. For Comoros, the blue‑economy strategy and public investments may transform the archipelago into a niche eco‑tourism destination, though political stability and infrastructure improvements are prerequisites. Turkmenistan’s adoption of an e‑visa law and participation in international tourism fairs mark an important shift from isolation, but broader reforms will be needed to build trust and attract travellers.
In summary, high visa refusal rates currently mask the resilience and potential of these destinations. If governments pair consular modernisation with sustainable tourism policies, there is reasonable hope that tourism will not only recover but thrive in the post‑2026 period.
