At the beginning of 2026, energy uncertainty in Belarus intensified: despite statements about readiness for a new gas contract with Russia, no agreement has been signed, and the previous contract expired on December 31, 2025. Throughout last year, Minsk insisted on aligning prices with domestic Russian tariffs, payment in Russian rubles, and concluding a long-term agreement until 2030. However, even approximate pricing parameters were never announced, further increasing the atmosphere of uncertainty and dependence.
Against this backdrop, experts from the “Green Belarus” alliance released the results of a major study showing the critical vulnerability of the Belarusian energy system.
Around 60% of the country’s electricity is generated from gas, and electricity costs are almost entirely dependent on gas prices. Since natural gas and oil come almost exclusively from Russia, Belarus is in a state of absolute import dependence—without its own resources and technologically tied to Russian infrastructure.
This model creates ideal conditions for blackmail. The most dangerous risks are a halt or restriction of gas and oil supplies—a scenario that could trigger a large-scale economic and social catastrophe. Alternative supplies via the EU are technically possible, but the cost of such “independence” would be enormous: switching to European spot prices would mean billions in additional annual expenses.
Equally explosive is the domestic situation. Belarus’s centralized heating system relies on total subsidies: households pay only about 20% of the real cost of heat. If budget support is reduced, the country could face either the bankruptcy of municipal utilities or a sharp 4–5-fold increase in tariffs—with obvious social consequences and a risk of mass protests.
Belarus’s energy security is more an illusion than a reality. The state is trapped by its own short-sighted strategy, where “cheap resources” came at the cost of political pliancy. Without radical measures to reduce dependence on Russia, the country risks facing any geopolitical storm in darkness and cold, becoming a hostage to its own weakness and lack of genuine energy autonomy.