The current geopolitical issues that have generated concern among political analysts in Latin America are not expected to impact the infrastructure concessions and public-private partnerships (PPPs) agenda in Brazil.
“At this moment, we have no record of any indication of difficulties in advancing the auction schedule, which is already quite robust for the first quarter of this year,” Roberto Guimarães, Planning and Economics director at the Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries (Abdib), told BNamericas.
“Investments in infrastructure are decisions that look at horizons of twenty to thirty years, which is why there is greater resilience among these investors”, said Guimarães.
During the last weekend, in a military attack orchestrated by the United States, the then president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured by American elite forces and taken to New York to be tried for association with international drug trafficking.
The capture of Maduro has raised concern among Latin American governments, amid tense relations that Donald Trump’s administration has maintained with some countries, mainly Colombia and Mexico, which the president of the United States has criticized for an alleged intensification of international drug trafficking activities.
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration criticized the United States’ direct intervention in Venezuela, but economic agents do not see an escalation of tensions between the two countries as a consequence of the episode in Venezuela.
On Tuesday, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, the Ibovespa, rose 1.1%, while the real continued to appreciate against the dollar, indicating that investors do not foresee significant impacts on the Brazilian economy.
Amid the absence of significant economic impacts, Brazil expects to move forward with its infrastructure agenda this year, mainly through concession contracts and PPPs.
The country will have at least 11 auctions, with emphasis on the infrastructure and sanitation sectors, throughout the first quarter of this year. So far, the auctions already scheduled for the period are expected to generate projected investments of around 34 billion (bn) reais (US$6.3bn).
In addition to international geopolitical issues, the domestic political issue should remain on the radar, especially in the second half of the year, as in October Brazilians will go to the polls to vote for president, state governors, deputies, and senators.
“The elections in Brazil will not have any significant impact on the auction schedule and we do not expect any change to this agenda for the coming years, regardless of which candidate wins the election. In Brazil, the successful model of concessions and PPPs is consolidated and all political leaders support it. Therefore, the agenda we have in 2026 is likely to remain robust in 2027, 2028, and in the following years,” said Guimarães.
The current left-wing president, Lula, has already stated that he intends to run for re-election. Meanwhile, right-wing candidates have not yet reached a consensus on a definitive name.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has already announced his candidacy, but political analysts believe that other names may be confirmed in the coming months, such as states governors Tarcísio de Freitas, of São Paulo, and Ratinho Júnior, of Paraná.
While the rightwing forces faces difficulties in consolidating support around a single name, political analysts see Lula as having higher chances of reelection.
“Today we are working with a probability of around 60% for the re-election of President Lula [Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva], who remains the favorite,” Christopher Garman, executive director for the Americas at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told BNamericas.
(The original version of this content was written in Portuguese)