As I have pointed out repeatedly in recent weeks, the European economy is in acutely bad shape. To make matters worse, its governments are increasingly deadlocked, unable to even comprehend pressing policy problems. 

While Europe economically falls behind the rest of the world—being outperformed even by Russia—its ‘visionary’ political elite finds time to engage in eclectic flea killing:

The European Commission has unveiled a first set of pilot actions to accelerate Europe’s transition to a circular economy, with a particular focus on the plastics sector. Part of a two-step approach, the package of pilot measures includes, first, a set of short-term actions to support circularity in particular in the plastics sector, while encouraging investment and innovation more broadly. Second, the Commission will in 2026 propose a Circular Economy Act with further horizontal measures that will improve the functioning of the Single Market for secondary raw materials.

The concept of a ‘circular’ economy is almost a contradiction in terms. The idea is to minimize and eventually eliminate the input of new resources into the economic life of humanity. We are increasingly supposed to satisfy our needs with the same resources that our forefathers used. 

Yes, that is what a ‘circular economy’ actually means. It is neither more complicated nor more sophisticated than that. 

You do not need a Ph.D. in economics to see that there is no practical equivalent to the theory of the ‘circular economy.’ All it takes is to ask how the recycling of regular household items is going to happen without any net input of anything; a plastic bottle cannot be reshaped for another purpose unless at least some amount of energy is applied to it. 

Proponents of the circular concept will claim that this energy can come from wind and solar power, to which the counter-question will be: where do the raw materials come from that form the windmills and solar panels? The more concrete we make the questions regarding any aspect of the ‘circular economy,’ the farther it distances itself from reality. 

Sadly, one of the consequences of this distancing is that when the political ‘visionaries’ who lead the march into circularity are confronted with the impossibility of implementing their theory, they always seem to choose the theoretical concept over reality. As exemplified by the aforementioned latest concoction from the European Commission, the political elite is taking the EU and its 27 members farther away from where problems are solved into a make-believe ‘economy’ where there are no scarce resources of any kind. 

Meanwhile, Europe’s economy will barely move forward for the rest of this decade—and the entire continent is turning its back on some of the most essential economic resources out there: minerals. Since the prevailing belief among its political leadership appears to be that the same amount of matter can be used and reused ad infinitum, without the input of anything except a couple of rays of sunshine, it should perhaps come as no surprise that Europe has become dependent on others for its raw materials. 

A review of the long-term trend in European minerals production is a revealing, at times even shocking experience. According to the British Geological Survey (BGS) and its excellent World Minerals Production database, Europe has lost critical independence in the production of just about anything it could sever from the ground within its own borders. In other cases, the traditionally western EU states have shunned the responsibility to produce minerals and left the ‘dirty work’ to the traditionally eastern EU states.

To illustrate this point, let us compare two years: 1970 and 2023. The first year is chosen primarily because it predates the political controversy around oil that plagued the last quarter of the 20th century; the year 2023 is chosen simply because it is the newest for which the BGS has published any data. 

We will compare the EU as it is configured today to the corresponding geographical area in 1970; it will be referred to as “current EU-27” or simply “EU-27.” The minerals chosen are among the most commonly used in industrial activities: iron, coal, copper, and crude petroleum. 

Starting with iron, in 1970 the current EU-27 produced 119.8 million metric tons of iron ore. That production was spread out over 15 countries, with France in the lead (56.8m tons), followed by Sweden (31.5m tons), Spain (7.1m tons), and Germany (6m tons). 

Outside the EU-27, the United Kingdom added 12 million tons, Norway produced four million tons, and what was then known as Yugoslavia contributed 3.7 million tons. Even Albania severed iron ore from the ground to the tune of 540,000 tons per year.

The total 140.1 million tons of iron ore produced in Europe amounted to 18% of the world’s production of 768 million tons. 

In 2023, the picture had changed dramatically. The current EU-27 had cut its production to 40 million tons per year, 90% of which came from Swedish mines north of the Arctic Circle. In addition to Sweden, only three other countries contributed: Austria (3.2m tons), Germany (0.5m tons), and Spain (190,000 tons).

Iron ore production within the EU-27 had fallen by two-thirds since 1970. Norwegian production was down to 1.9 million tons; the only other European producer was Bosnia-Herzegovina with 1.2 million tons. 

But maybe this decline in production was due to a decline in global demand for iron ore? No: in 2023, the world as a whole produced 2.5 billion tons of iron ore—an increase of 226% over 1970. The European contribution to the world supply was not only two-thirds smaller in absolute numbers, but down to a microscopic 1.7% of the total global production. 

It is easy to get the impression that politics has governed the decline in iron ore mining in Europe. Looking at copper production, that impression only grows stronger. In 1970, the world produced 6.4 million tons of copper, of which the current EU-27 was responsible for 228,000 tons, Norway added 20,000 tons, and Albania 6,000 tons. 

Production within the EU-27 was divided between 11 countries, led by Poland (83,000 tons), Bulgaria (42,000), and Finland (30,900). 

In 2023, the EU-27 geography had increased its copper production by 241%—but the production had completely stopped in Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, and Italy. It was down by 35% in Finland. By contrast, Bulgaria was now producing 73% more copper; Polish mining was more than four times its 1970 volume; and Romania had gone from nothing to 9,300 tons. 

With the exception of production increases in Sweden and Portugal, traditional western Europe retreated drastically from copper mining, shifting instead the responsibility for producing the mineral to eastern Europe. Outside of the EU-27, Serbia now produces almost a quarter of a million tons of copper per year.

Shifts in the production of coal are even more conspicuous than in other minerals. While the world tripled its production from 1970 to 2023—from 2.9 billion tons to 9.1 billion—Europe cut its production by almost 30%. The EU-27 were responsible for 64% of this total reduction of 323 million tons:

In 1970, 17 of the EU-27 countries produced 922.4 million tons of coal; Germany churned out 480.7 million tons, followed by Poland (172.8m tons), Czechoslovakia (109.8m tons), and France (40.1m tons); 

In 2023, 9 of the EU-27 produced 714.7 million tons; Romania was at the top (445.3m tons), followed by Germany (102.2m tons), Poland (94.5m tons), and Czechia (29.8m tons).

The traditionally western part of the EU-27 produced 32% of the area’s coal in 1970; in 2023 they are responsible for only 16%. Of the nine countries still producing coal in the EU-27, only Germany and Greece belong to the traditional west. 

This is a very telling shift that cannot be explained in any other way than with political pipe dreams. The fact that the world produces three times as much coal now as it did five decades ago is an indicator as clear as any that the world needs coal—and should have more of it. Any European politicians who believe the contrary are living in a dreamland. 

We can see the same trend in oil production, though not as pronounced; due to lucrative tax revenue, it is more difficult for governments to say no to the production of oil than of other minerals. In 1970, the EU-27 produced 16.7 million tons of crude petroleum; in 2023, their production volume was almost identical. 

During the same period, global production had doubled from 2.3 billion tons to 4.5 billion. While the EU-27 share of this production fell from 0.7% to 0.4%, the non-EU part of Europe drastically increased its crude oil output:

The United Kingdom increased from 84,000 tons in 1970 to 33.5 million in 2023;

Norway went from zero to 90.8 million tons.

Meanwhile, Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands reduced their production of crude oil by approximately 80%. In fairness, some EU-27 countries have also added oil production, e.g., Denmark and Romania, where production amounted to 2.9 million tons each in 2023. But the overall trend has been clearly negative, even for this quintessential mineral.

It is fortunate for Europe that the political trendsetters have not managed to shut down all minerals production. However, if Europe is going to have any future to look forward to, it must take a much more pragmatic, pro-prosperity approach to all things economic. A ‘circular’ economy is a stagnant economy, and a stagnant economy is an economy in decline.