Geopolitical risks and trade tensions remain the dominant threat to global finance as the industry heads into 2026, followed by cyber risk and concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy, according to a new global survey by market infrastructure group DTCC.

The latest Systemic Risk Barometer survey, which DTCC has run annually since 2013, found that 78% of respondents ranked geopolitical risks and trade tensions among their top five threats. This is the fourth consecutive year that this category has topped the list, underlining the persistence of geopolitical flashpoints and trade disputes as a strain on markets.

Cyber risk ranked second overall, with 63% of respondents citing it as a top five concern. Respondents highlighted the continuing threat of cyber attacks on financial institutions and market infrastructure, and the potential for operational disruption and contagion.

Fears around the outlook for the US economy also featured prominently. A US economic slowdown was identified as a top five risk by 41% of those surveyed, placing it third in the ranking. Concerns about market volatility and the possibility of sudden dislocation in financial markets followed at 38%, alongside uncertainty over US monetary and fiscal policy, which was also cited by 38% of respondents.

AI and fintech risk

The survey shows rising unease about the financial sector’s growing use of artificial intelligence and fintech solutions. Excessive global public and corporate debt and inflation were both named as top five risks by 34% of respondents. Fintech followed closely, with 33% of respondents ranking it in their top five. DTCC linked this response in part to the expanding deployment of AI tools across financial services.

Respondents identified cybersecurity and data protection vulnerabilities as the leading risk associated with artificial intelligence. Some 41% of those surveyed pointed to this as their primary AI-related concern, signalling anxiety that AI adoption could enlarge the attack surface for cyber threats or expose sensitive data if not managed carefully.

AI-generated misinformation, including false outputs or hallucinations, was the next most common concern, cited by 38% of respondents. Many firms are experimenting with generative AI in trading, risk analysis and client communication. The survey results point to worries that inaccurate or fabricated outputs could influence decision-making or mislead clients and regulators.

Respondents also highlighted governance shortcomings around AI. Insufficient governance, controls and oversight was flagged by 37% of participants, while 34% warned of the danger of overreliance on AI solutions in critical processes.

Tim Cuddihy, DTCC Group Chief Risk Officer, said uncertainty ran across many of the responses. “A common theme across the survey responses was concern over uncertainty-whether economic, geopolitical, or tied to emerging technologies like AI,” said Tim Cuddihy, Group Chief Risk Officer, DTCC. “Respondents also flagged concentration risks, such as heavy reliance on a few technology providers or platforms, warning that new technologies like AI and quantum computing could introduce fresh pathways for contagion and systemic events.”

Quantum computing gap

The survey included a new question on quantum computing and its future impact on cybersecurity. The responses suggest that a minority of firms are preparing for the risk. Only 29% of respondents said their organisation is actively planning for cybersecurity risks linked to quantum computing.

A further 25% said their firm acknowledges quantum computing as a risk but has no current plans to address it. The remainder either did not see it as a material risk at this stage or were unsure of their firm’s position. The figures indicate a gap between industry awareness of the potential threat and concrete planning for a post-quantum environment.

Financial regulators and standard-setters have increasingly raised the prospect that quantum technology could in time break widely used cryptographic methods that underpin secure communications, transaction processing and identity verification. The survey findings suggest that many market participants remain at an early stage in their preparations.

Call for coordination

DTCC said the findings underscored the need for closer coordination across the sector on emerging risks. The organisation provides post-trade services such as clearing, settlement, asset servicing, trade reporting and data services across asset classes. It sits at the centre of transaction flows between broker dealers, custodian banks and asset managers.

The group said survey participants also expressed concern about concentration risk in technology supply chains. They pointed to the reliance on a small number of major cloud, data and technology providers and the possibility that outages, cyber incidents or failures at these firms could have broad systemic effects.

Cuddihy said industry dialogue would play a key role as firms confront this mix of traditional and emerging threats.

“The most effective tool to navigate uncertainty is industry-wide communication and collaboration. DTCC remains committed to fostering open dialogue and engagement to strengthen resilience and mitigate systemic risks,” said Cuddihy.