When President Trump declared in a Mar-a-Lago press conference this month that the US would run Venezuela for the foreseeable future, he was flanked by members of his top team, including Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, and Pete Hesgeth, US secretary of war. But there was one notable exception: JD Vance.
The foreign policy dove and anti-interventionist was nowhere to be seen ā instead Vance watched the raid play out via a secure video conference and flew to his home in Cincinnati after the operation concluded.
In the hours that followed, his team quickly issued an explainer. Vance had been ādeeply integrated in the process and planningā but there had been concerns that the vice-presidentās arrival late at night could lead to unhelpful speculation before the secret raid. Whatās more, security concerns mean the Secret Service tries to limit āthe vice-president and president being co-located away from the White Houseā.
President Maduro of Venezuela was captured by US forces and awaits trial
ADAM GRAY/REUTERS
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However, it was not enough to silence the naysayers. Questions began to be asked in DC ā was Vance tactically laying low due to personal concerns or a desire to see how the Maga base responds to Trumpās audacious play?Where does his potential 2028 running mate Rubio fit into this as he receives Republican praise for his leading role in overseeing the operation?
When asked whether Vanceās ānotable absenceā reflected āhis anti-interventionist ideology or political calculationā this week, Karoline Leavitt, Trumpās press secretary, was quick to dismiss such talk as fake news. But this denial was not enough to stop Vance facing a similar line of questioning in a Fox News interview. Asked about a potential power struggle between him and Rubio, he said: āI donāt feel like that at all.ā
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Like many in Trumpās cabinet, Vance has been on a political journey ā going from a never-Trumper to being one of his most loyal foot soldiers. Where the 41-year-old Republican has remained largely consistent is foreign affairs.
JD Vance, the US vice-president, training with the US Navy seals in December
He has long opposed American military interventions, which can be traced back to his own experience serving as a military journalist in Iraq in 2005. He went there full of hope that the US could bring freedom to the country, only to later say that he āmade the mistake of supporting the Iraq warā as promises were never delivered and the mission was destabilising.
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Since then, he has been outspoken on Ukraine and has said that Europe should fend for itself. In a leaked Signal chat last year (about strikes in the Red Sea), Vance complained to colleagues: āI just hate bailing Europe out againā.
Vance has been outspoken on Ukraine. President Zelensky, left, faced an intense White House row in February with President Trump and the US vice-president
JIM LO SCALZO/EPA
On Venezuela, however, Vance is more nuanced. He previously described the use of the US military for strikes on boats allegedly carrying narcotics as the best use of troops ā dealing with the war on drugs.
However, some in Maga-world believe regime change could be a step too far. Publicly, Vance has been supportive when asked about the moves. Yet his main public focus is the domestic agenda. He repeated claims at a briefing this week that the ICE agent who killed Renee Nicole Good was acting in āself-defenseā.
Meanwhile, Rubio is leading the charge about Venezuela and Trumpās wider āAmericas Firstā mission. āThey are dealing with different things,ā said a Maga figure, who played down a split, adding: āVance is talking about fraud ā heās not deliberately laying low.ā This week the US vice-president did, however, discuss foreign affairs in a meeting with David Lammy, the UKās deputy prime minister, about Ukraine, Venezuela and Greenland.
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But as the Maga base waits to see how Trumpās Venezuela play will work out ā a decisive move that leads to oil for the US or long complicated regime change which involves boots on the ground ān Vanceās positioning could yet prove helpful with the base when it comes to a likely tilt for the 2028 nomination.
On the way there, could he face competition from Rubio? Rubio has previously suggested he wonāt run if Vance does. But that hasnāt stopped others suggesting he would make a great president.
John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, Trump and Marco Rubio earlier this month
DONALD TRUMPāS TRUTH SOCIAL ACCOUNT/ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES
Laura Loomer, the conspiracy theorist and Trump whisperer, has been effusive in her praise of Rubio, describing him recently as the āGreatest Secretary of Stateā. She talked up the mainstream media, planning a flurry of pieces on āthe most popular Cabinet memberā. This month, she has said: āMarco Rubio @marcorubio is going to be President someday.ā
Some Vance supporters believe there is an attempt to undermine his candidacy ā and believe the Republican old guard would rather Rubio (who was at least once seen to hold traditional Republican views) take over.
Many of those praising Rubio are pro-Israel ā and here Vance has attracted some criticism in recent months over his friendship with Tucker Carlson. Carlson has divided the Republican party with his decision to interview Nick Fuentes, who has praised Hitler on multiple occasions.
āPraising Marco as a presidential candidate is a way to put Vance in his place,ā said a Maga figure. āA lot of the people doing it are suspicious of Vance and think he is too isolationist or too close to the people in the party who turn a blind eye to anti-Semitism.ā
Yet for now, Vance appears to be ahead with the base. When a straw poll on Trumpās successor was taken at Turning Point USAās AmericaFest convention last month, he secured 84.2 per cent of the attendee votes. Rubio came in second on about five per cent.
Itās why the race to 2028 is still Vanceās to lose.