Duke Energy (DUK) is back in focus after unveiling its DeBary Hydrogen Production Storage System in Florida, a first of its kind U.S. project that can handle up to 100% green hydrogen end to end.
See our latest analysis for Duke Energy.
The DeBary hydrogen project arrives after a period where momentum has cooled, with a 90 day share price return decline of 7.64%, even as Duke Energy’s 1 year total shareholder return sits at 12.32% and 5 year total shareholder return at 55.71%, pointing to a steadier long term record.
If projects like DeBary have you thinking about how utilities can evolve, it may be worth scanning other regulated and renewable focused healthcare stocks to see what else stands out.
With Duke Energy shares down 7.64% over 90 days but up 55.71% over 5 years and trading at $117.32 versus an analyst target of $136.35, is there still upside here, or are markets already pricing in future growth?
With Duke Energy last closing at US$117.32 versus a narrative fair value of about US$136.35, the current share price sits below that implied level and anchors a valuation story built around regulated growth and power demand.
Significant infrastructure and grid modernization investment (e.g., over $4 billion incremental CapEx in Florida) is positioned to capitalize on growing needs for digitalization and grid resilience, enabling Duke to enhance operational efficiency and reliability, which benefits both net margins and future rate base growth.
Curious what earnings path and margin profile need to line up for that valuation to hold? The narrative leans on steady revenue expansion and a richer future P/E. Want to see how those assumptions fit together and what they imply for 2028 profitability and pricing power? Read on and test whether this fair value matches your own expectations.
Result: Fair Value of $136.35 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on big assumptions, and faster adoption of customer solar and batteries or tougher future regulation could easily chip away at those earnings and P/E expectations.
Find out about the key risks to this Duke Energy narrative.
While the narrative fair value sits around US$136.35 and frames Duke Energy as 14% undervalued, our DCF model points the other way. On those cash flow assumptions, fair value lands closer to US$64.38, which would make the current US$117.32 share price look expensive. Which story do you think fits future cash generation better?
