Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) is back in focus after topping Bloomberg’s 2025 Australian bonds and loans league tables. This highlights its role in debt markets as investors watch upcoming data and earnings.
See our latest analysis for Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
CBA’s recent leadership in bonds and loans sits alongside a softer share price patch, with the latest close at A$153.22 and a 90 day share price return of a 9% decline, even as the 5 year total shareholder return of 116.17% reflects substantial value creation over time. Headlines around AI deployment, customer experience concerns and a ramp up in investor mortgages give investors several angles to reassess both growth potential and risk perceptions ahead of earnings and macro data.
If you are thinking beyond the big banks, this could be a useful moment to broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.
CBA now trades below recent highs despite a 3 year total return of 60.64% and a 5 year total return of 116.17%. With analysts’ average price target at A$121.62, is there hidden value here, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 27.2% Overvalued
The most followed narrative puts Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s fair value at A$120.47 compared with the last close at A$153.22. This frames a clear valuation gap for investors to interrogate before earnings and macro updates.
The analysts have a consensus price target of A$117.821 for Commonwealth Bank of Australia based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of A$146.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of A$100.0.
Want to see what has to happen for that valuation to stack up? The narrative focuses on steady revenue expansion, resilient margins and a premium future earnings multiple. Curious how those assumptions translate into today’s fair value call?
Result: Fair Value of A$120.47 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still a couple of watchpoints that could challenge this overvaluation call, including ongoing tech driven cost pressures and CBA’s heavy exposure to Australian mortgages.
Find out about the key risks to this Commonwealth Bank of Australia narrative.
Build Your Own Commonwealth Bank of Australia Narrative
If you are not fully on board with this viewpoint or simply prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can shape a personalised CBA story in just a few minutes with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Commonwealth Bank of Australia research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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