It’s no secret that one of the main goals of the U.S. strike on Venezuela — which ended with the capture of then-president Nicolás Maduro — was to secure access to the country’s oil.

Shortly after the invasion, the White House claimed it intends to control Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely.” 

Analysts say that such disruption could hurt Argentina’s fossil fuel industry, which relies almost entirely on Vaca Muerta, a vast shale oil and gas field in northern Patagonia.

“With the current international oil price, Vaca Muerta (which produces unconventional oil) is operating at cruising speed, while conventional oil faces difficulties due to the reduction in operating margins,” a report by consulting firm PxQ said. 

Oil prices are already relatively low due to oversupply, with the U.S. becoming the world’s main producer in 2018 and OPEC+ countries (a large group of producing nations) consistently increasing their production goals. From 2022 to 2026, crude oil went from over US$100 to US$56 a barrel. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Donald Trump expects to produce enough crude from Venezuela’s oilfields to drive down the price even further, to about US$50.

For unconventional reservoirs like Vaca Muerta, which require major investment for extraction through techniques such as fracking, lower oil prices could be a determining factor in deciding to pursue investments.

“If the U.S. moves forward with controlling strategic assets, lifts restrictions, and Venezuela’s internal political situation allows it, the recovery of oil production would mean a negative external shock for Argentina, due to the fall in international prices,” the PxQ document added.

A separate report by Paspartú, another consulting firm, said that, following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela, Argentina’s export plans could be affected. The document said that, if in the short term prices rise due to geopolitical uncertainty and reduced production, investment plans in Vaca Muerta could accelerate. However, if in the medium term, the price of the Brent barrel falls, investments would drop.

Before the invasion, sources from YPF, Argentina’s state-owned oil and gas company and the main producer in the Vaca Muerta region, had told the Herald that they had a contingency plan for a potential fall in prices. 

That scenario was behind the sale of YPF’s share of Profertil in December —a fertilizer producer of which the energy company owned half — for US$635 million. The rationale was that, with that extra cash, YPF could finance its production even with reduced oil prices.

Oil production in Venezuela

While Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (306 billion barrels as of 2026), its impact on global prices could be limited, some analysts posit. “There are several structural issues with Venezuela’s oil sector that render investment less attractive,” said a report by BMI, a British research firm and subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, published this week.

First, decades of mismanagement and U.S. sanctions have deteriorated Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Trump has made it clear that he hopes to expand U.S. involvement in the sector, with companies spending “billions” to reverse production declines.

On the geological front, BMI said, the “bulk of the country’s crude is in heavy, high-sulphur oil,” which is “complex and expensive to extract, requiring diluent to blend with lighter hydrocarbons.” 

The report added that contracts require the national oil company, PDVSA, to hold a majority stake in licences and that U.S. sanctions have further limited activity by international oil companies over the past decade.

Moreover, since mid-December, the U.S. Navy has been blocking the export of Venezuelan oil. The campaign intensified after Maduro’s capture.

“While Venezuelan exports are curtailed by the ongoing blockade, they make up less than 1% of global supply, limiting the impact on oil prices in the near term,” the report said.

“Upside risks to Venezuela’s oil production will weigh on oil prices in the long term, but in the near term, prices will be little affected by a temporary loss or gain in production levels,” said BMI.

‘Geopolitical risk’

The Paspartú report added another consideration, aside from the price.

“Argentina would lose an intangible asset when it comes to ‘selling’ its production — mainly in terms of liquified natural gas (LNG) — and attracting investment, as South America would cease to be a ‘region of peace,’ far from the geopolitical risk of regional conflicts,” the Paspartú analysis added, saying that potential LNG offtakers usually highlight Argentina’s distance from “hot” zones when speaking about diversifying suppliers.

“The loss of this comparative advantage could place Vaca Muerta LNG in a less relevant position in global geopolitics,” the report said.

However, PxQ also took geopolitics into account and reached a more positive outcome, positing that the negative effects on the Argentine oil industry could be offset.

“If the intervention in Venezuela is successful,” the report said, “this could mean a jump in Trump’s popularity and could even begin to pave the way for a successor who would continue to provide financial and economic support [to Argentina] through 2027.”

The situation is unprecedented and moving quickly, and all bets are off.

“Stabilizing Venezuela is a major challenge, just as complicated as recovering its oil production after five years of decline and deterioration of infrastructure,” PxQ said.