September quarter GDP rose 1.1%, at the top of market forecasts and ahead of the RBNZ’s projections, suggesting “less spare capacity in the economy than they had anticipated”. Stats NZ figures show the rebound was broad‑based, with 14 of 16 industries expanding and expenditure‑side GDP up 1.3% on the back of stronger exports and a 3.2% lift in business investment. Together with firmer‑than‑expected November price data, that has prompted banks such as ASB and Westpac to flag a lower chance of any further OCR cuts in the near term.
Westpac now sees inflation easing gradually from 3% year‑on‑year and back comfortably inside the RBNZ’s 1–3% band by mid‑2026, helped by soft rents and slowing construction costs.
Flat housing market, more stock and choice for buyers
For advisers, the standout is a soft housing market despite lower mortgage rates. Sales fell 3% in November and prices slipped 0.3% (seasonally adjusted), with the national market “flat since mid‑2023”.
Westpac links that to a sharp rise in listings: adjusting for seasonality, “the number of homes available for sale is at its highest level in a decade.”
New figures from realestate.co.nz back that up, showing 30,390 properties listed for sale in December – up 3.1% year-on-year and the highest December stock level in 10 years – with more than 30,000 homes on the market every month of 2025. National values slipped 1% over the year, leaving the median at $808,430 and still well below the early‑2022 peak.