India’s energy security, BRICS ambitions, and multi-alignment are now under sharper strain

The US military intervention in Venezuela — a nation sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves — marks a significant shift in how Washington plans to exert power in a more fragmented world. While the strike has drawn limited international condemnation, its implications are far-reaching, particularly for countries like India that are navigating complex strategic alignments across energy, trade, climate, and global governance.

While at its core, the attack seems to be about reasserting control over resources, supply chains, and influence, it also comes at a moment when the post-WWII global order, largely held together by US power and multilateral institutions, is fraying. For developing nations including India, which have long relied on that architecture to maintain strategic flexibility, the shift poses new questions about energy access, the limits of multilateralism, and the future of Global South coalitions like BRICS.

Unlike in the past, the US has made no significant effort to frame the strike on Venezuela through humanitarian or democratic lenses. Instead, the action aligns with the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy, which prioritises energy dominance — oil, gas, nuclear — as a pillar of US strength. In Venezuela, that means seizing an opportunity to control key supplies and limit access for rivals like China, while weakening the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) control on pricing and supply.

The timing of the move seems strategic. Venezuela had been moving closer to BRICS and experimenting with non-dollar oil trade. That shift was widely seen as symbolic, but the US response suggests it was being taken seriously. For countries including India and others that import substantial volumes of their oil and have historically looked to balance suppliers across political divides, the use of military force to settle energy access highlights the risks that market mechanisms alone may no longer guarantee supply.

A Strategic Shock to the Global South

The attack is being read by some in Delhi as a direct signal: efforts to build alternative financial and energy architectures — through BRICS or other South-South groupings — will face hard limits.

The deeper concern is about precedent. If the US is prepared to act without legal or multilateral cover, and without fear of institutional pushback, then the strategic environment for emerging powers becomes more uncertain. “At least for 100 years, the powers — the established, rich nations — were known,” said Manjeev Puri, India’s former ambassador to the EU. “There was an idea of a rules-based order in place. In 1945, the US helmed the system.” But that system is now under visible strain.

India’s Balancing Gets Harder

India’s traditional approach has been to engage with the US on defense and technology while preserving energy and security ties with Russia, Iran, and even Venezuela. That balance is becoming more difficult to sustain. The Venezuela episode may not trigger any immediate rupture, but it raises longer-term questions about whether India can afford to count on global norms to protect its interests.

Privately, Indian officials acknowledge that multi-alignment — a core tenet of India’s current foreign policy — is being tested by the return of raw power politics. New Delhi has so far chosen to monitor the situation. But there’s recognition that the same tools India has relied on — diplomatic negotiation, energy diversification, and institutional forums — may carry less weight in the new environment.

The U.S. withdrawal from the UNFCCC and dozens of other multilateral frameworks — part of its exit from 66 global institutions — sends a clear signal that climate is no longer part of its strategic calculus. That weakens multilateralism not just on climate, but on the broader architecture that links trade, technology, and development to low-carbon goals. For countries like India, which have relied on platforms like the ISA and climate finance talks to press for equity, the implications are clear: there will be less room to negotiate, and more pressure to align with power — not principle. 

What Happens to BRICS?

The strike also presents a challenge to BRICS. With no security commitments between members, and with internal divisions unresolved, the grouping has limited capacity to respond to strategic shocks. While the attack could push some members to deepen coordination — especially around energy and trade — it’s equally possible that it exposes BRICS’ limits as a platform for geopolitical autonomy.

Europe, Greenland, and Spheres of Influence

India is also watching for signs of European reaction, particularly if US strategic interest shifts to Greenland — another zone rich in untapped resources. With limited defense capacity and no real appetite for confrontation, Europe’s response to a possible U.S. push into Greenland is likely to be muted. With little military leverage and no real political appetite for confrontation, most EU states are expected to wait it out. That creates room for India and Europe to deepen trade and tech cooperation — but it also underscores a broader reality: traditional alliances are no longer a reliable brake on unilateral power.

Ambassador Puri has noted that India should remain mindful of being drawn too closely into any binary system — especially one where the US and China emerge as the de facto superpowers and the rest are expected to fall in line. “Respect doesn’t come without responsibility, and responsibility doesn’t come without cost,” he said.

Looking Ahead

India’s immediate focus is likely to be on reinforcing its energy resilience — diversifying suppliers, strengthening reserves, and reassessing vulnerabilities. Ursula von der Leyen’s Republic Day 2026 visit to Delhi—coinciding with the India-EU Summit and the German Chancellor’s visit—offers both sides a timely opportunity to expedite FTA closure, mutually reinforcing their shared commitment to rules-based trade and green technology resilience amid US unilateralism.

But the broader takeaway from the Venezuela strike may be about how power is shifting. In a world where resource access can be decided by force, India will have to navigate with greater caution — and fewer assumptions.

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