Crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) gained over a percent, in line with the rally in international energy prices that touched the highest level since November 2025, amid heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions due to tensions in Iran.
MCX crude oil prices traded 1.48% higher at ₹5,414 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.78% to $64.37 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 0.84% to $60.00.
The rally in crude oil prices came after US President Donald Trump said he’s imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran.
One of the biggest producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iran is facing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years, drawing a warning from Trump of possible military action over lethal violence against protesters.
According to Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd, Trump’s warning of potential military action further heightened concerns over Middle East stability and possible disruptions to Iranian oil exports, a key component of global supply.
“Additional supply risks emerged from Kazakhstan, where production was impacted by adverse weather, maintenance issues, and damage to Russian infrastructure linked to Ukrainian drone attacks, reinforcing bullish sentiment in oil markets,” Kalantri said.
Meanwhile, markets are also grappling with concerns of additional crude supply hitting the market due to Venezuela’s anticipated return to exports. Following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of oil subject to Western sanctions to the US, Reuters reported.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities said that the trend for crude oil prices may remain positive for the upcoming weeks.
“Support for MCX crude oil price is seen at ₹5,350 level, while resistance is placed at ₹5,800 level. WTI crude is likely to have support at $58 and resistance at $65 level,” said Trivedi.
According to Kalantri, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in today’s session.
“Crude oil price has support at $58.70 – $57.80 and resistance is at $60.20 – $60.90 in today’s session. MCX crude oil price has support at ₹5,280 – ₹5,210 and resistance at ₹5,415 – ₹5,485,” said Kalantri.
India currently imports approximately 89% of its crude oil requirements. About 45–50% of India’s crude oil and 54% of its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption here is not just a price shock; it is a physical supply threat.
According to estimates, every $10 increase in crude oil price will widen trade deficits by roughly 0.3% of GDP which will put immediate downward pressure on the rupee. This directly impacts the retail inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to rise by 25-30 basis points.
“The Rupee is currently around ₹90– ₹91 against the USD, but a prolonged conflict could drive it to ₹93-95 due to three factors: Import-Led Depreciation from high oil prices increasing Dollar demand; the ‘Twin Deficit” Threat from necessary government subsidies affecting the Fiscal and Current Account Deficits; and RBI Intervention Limits, where the Reserve Bank of India may permit managed depreciation, increasing the Rupee’s volatility,” said Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst, Choice Broking.
According to him, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to exit sectors sensitive to oil prices, such as Aviation and Chemicals, and shift to more defensive sectors like IT and Pharma, although these sectors are also impacted by global downturns.
(With inputs from Reuters)
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