Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Valuation Check As Recent Share Price Moves Cool Earlier Momentum

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is back on many investors’ screens after its recent share price moves, with the stock showing a modest gain over the past week but declines over the month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.

Zooming out, Marathon Petroleum’s 6.49% year to date share price return and 20.30% one year total shareholder return suggest momentum has cooled recently after a stronger run and may indicate shifting expectations around future cash flows and risk.

If you are reassessing energy exposure after Marathon Petroleum’s recent moves, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with aerospace and defense stocks as another area to research.

So, with Marathon Petroleum trading around $175.85, carrying a value score of 4 and an estimated intrinsic discount of roughly 66%, is the market offering a mispriced entry, or is it already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.1% Undervalued

Marathon Petroleum’s fair value in the most followed narrative sits around US$200.11 per share, compared with the last close at US$175.85. This frames the situation as a discount story built on future cash flows and capital returns.

Disciplined capital allocation through continued share buybacks, increasing MPLX distributions, and maintenance of an investment-grade balance sheet are set to drive higher earnings per share and sustained shareholder returns, aligning with positive long-term company trends. Investments in renewable fuels capacity and digital/autonomous refinery technology provide incremental but growing future revenue streams, greater cost efficiencies, and improved long-term net margins, positioning the company well as demand shifts and carbon regulation increases over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a business with flat revenue expectations can still support a richer valuation? The core assumptions lean heavily on margin expansion, earnings growth and a re rated future P/E multiple. Want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up against that higher fair value line?

Result: Fair Value of $200.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on refining profitability holding up, and tighter carbon or environmental rules could pressure Marathon Petroleum’s fossil fuel heavy asset base and margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

That 66% discount to our fair value estimate sets a strong first impression, but the earnings multiple paints a different picture. Marathon Petroleum trades on a P/E of 18.4x versus 13.5x for the wider US Oil and Gas group and 31.2x across its closer peers. Our fair ratio sits at 21x.

In plain terms, the stock is priced richer than the industry average but below both peers and the 21x fair ratio, which suggests some room for sentiment to shift either way. The question for you is whether earnings quality and growth forecasts are enough to justify that middle ground.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:MPC P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Marathon Petroleum Narrative

If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can spin up a fresh narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marathon Petroleum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Marathon Petroleum is on your radar, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set now so you are not hearing about the next idea after it moves.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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