US markets are holding near record highs, but the mood is anything but settled. While US inflation data came in largely as expected, easing some immediate pressure on the Fed, political noise is creeping back into the pricing of rates, bonds and currencies. Expectations for a March rate cut are fading, yields are staying elevated, and concerns over Fed independence are largely in focus.
Earnings season adds another layer of complexity. S&P 500 profits are still expected to grow by more than 8%, with big tech doing the heavy lifting. But with valuations stretched, strong headline numbers may no longer be enough. Investors are digging deeper, looking for discipline, sustainable growth and restraint — especially in the AI space, where overspending and leverage remain key risks.
Beyond the US, Asian equities are hitting fresh highs, trade tensions are simmering, and oil prices are reacting to fresh geopolitical disruptions. Plenty to unpack.
