The Trump administration’s plan for the US to indefinitely market Venezuela’s crude has injected fresh uncertainty into global oil markets, raising questions about feasibility, legality and longer-term consequences for Venezuela’s oil sector. The proposal would see the US take control of Venezuela’s crude production — estimated at 870,000 barrels per day in 2025 — shifting some 565,000 b/d of exports from the “shadow” market to the regulated market. Venezuelan crude has mainly traded in the shadows since 2019, when harsh US sanctions on state Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) were implemented during US President Donald Trump’s first term. The White House aims to place proceeds from crude sales into US-controlled accounts and later split the revenues between Washington and Caracas. However, details are fuzzy, uncertainty remains high over next steps and the impact of US influence over Venezuela’s oil trade is still not clear. The initiative is framed as part of a broader effort to assert US control over Venezuela’s oil industry following the Jan. 3 removal of President Nicolas Maduro. Trump says the US and Venezuela have agreed to the sale of up to $2 billion worth of crude to the US, the first $500 million of which was reportedly completed this week. Chevron, the only US oil company still operating in Venezuela, holds a private US Treasury license allowing it to market crude from its joint ventures with PDVSA. That structure now appears to be the template for a wider US-led marketing scheme, potentially accompanied by selective sanctions relief. Commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have already joined the effort, getting US licenses in recent days to negotiate and trade Venezuelan oil cargoes. The first task will be getting crude exports flowing again quickly, starting with 30 million-50 million barrels in storage that had backed up under a US blockade that started in December. Refiners on the US Gulf Coast that can process heavy sour crude figure to be first in line to receive cargoes. Trump also hasn’t ruled out oil sales to other buyers with coking capacity, including China and India.
