The Spanberger sprint: Larry Sabato on Virginia’s new political era

RICHMOND, Va. — For decades, when Virginians wanted to understand the state’s political temperature, they turned to Dr. Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia Center for Politics.  With another historic inauguration on the horizon, Sabato once again offers clarity on what lies ahead as Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger prepares to make history as the Commonwealth’s first woman to hold its top job.

“There have been 75 governors of Virginia,” Sabato noted. “And she will be the first woman. When you have a first like this, it becomes a singular event in history — and one that people really pay attention to.”

Sabato expects crowds to gather in record numbers for the inauguration — though perhaps not as large as those who turned out in 1990 for Doug Wilder, the nation’s first elected Black governor. “It will be a significant event historically, nonetheless,” he added.

Spanberger told reporters recently that her word for the year is “sprint.” Sabato says there’s no better choice. “She’s young and vigorous and has exactly the right idea,” he said. “We have a one-term limit — the last state in the nation with one term of non-consecutive service. So they’re in and out quickly. You’d better pay attention and use every day well, because those four years will speed by.”

Sabato says Spanberger’s early advantage is rare: “She was elected in a massive landslide — the largest for any Democrat since the early 1960s. She’s got a heavily Democratic General Assembly, a Democratic lieutenant governor, and attorney general. She’s in tune with where Virginia is.”

That alignment, Sabato argues, stands in stark contrast to her predecessor. “That was the problem with Governor Youngkin,” he said. “He was pro-Trump in a very strongly anti-Trump state. Spanberger is in a much better position to accomplish things and to do so quickly.”

As the first female governor in Virginia’s long history, Sabato says Spanberger will face additional scrutiny. “Unfortunately, it may be a quarter of the way into the 21st century, but we’re still living in mid-20th century in some ways,” he said. “She’s already experienced it. Governor Youngkin wrote her a long, strident letter about what she should and shouldn’t do with respect to university governance. That was mansplaining at its worst.”

Sabato said the gesture was unprecedented: “Never has a governor written the incoming governor and given. Explicit instructions about what she may do and what she may not do. It was shocking to me on that basis. But you see, in gender terms, women expect this, and that’s exactly what Governor Spanberger got. She’ll get more of it too, but I suspect she’ll endure it — and triumph. She’s used to it.”

But Spanberger’s new administration isn’t without complications. Attorney General-elect Jay Jones enters office under a shadow following a controversy that nearly derailed his campaign. “Oh, he absolutely has the cloud over him,” Sabato said plainly. “Yes, people elected him — he did win a healthy majority — but that doesn’t absolve you from all of your past sins. He’s got a lot of proving to do.”

Sabato warned that “the slightest tinge of arrogance from him or his office could defang him for his entire term. He’s under the microscope — and frankly, deserves to be.”

Sabato says one of Spanberger’s earliest political challenges will be navigating a “hostile administration in Washington.” “President Trump and his cabinet will not be inclined to cooperate with her very much,” he predicted. “She has a bipartisan demeanor, and she’ll try her best — but as we’ve seen elsewhere, they may not even meet her a quarter of the way.”

The UVA professor says that political tension may define her early months — and will test whether Spanberger can deliver on promises of affordability, housing, and healthcare reform. “Show progress in specific ways quickly,” Sabato advised. “That’s the metric. People want to see results.”

As Virginians await Spanberger’s swearing in, Sabato says the speech itself will set the tone. “Words matter in politics,” he insisted. “People will pay close attention to each word, to each sentence, to each paragraph. What does she emphasize? How does she emphasize it?”

While the governor-elect has kept her inaugural address under wraps, Sabato expects some surprises “they work very hard to get in there, and they’re certainly not going to waste that opportunity again, because they only have 4 years.”

Spanberger, for her part, kept her message simple ahead of her swearing-in:

“Virginia, I cannot wait to get to work for you.”

The sprint, it seems, has already begun.