Ramping up Venezuela oil production could risk ‘methane bomb’ data shows

US takeover risks climate ‘methane bomb’ from increased oil productionIncrease to previous levels could emit 730 million tonnes of CO2e a yearVenezuela’s oil among most methane- and flare-intensive globally

Ramping up oil production in Venezuela could add pollution equivalent to the emissions of all global shipping into the atmosphere each year, new Global Witness analysis reveals.

The analysis – the first to quantify the emissions from increased Venezuelan crude production after the US’s colonialist power grab last week – found annual pollution from Venezuela’s current oil production to be 221 million tonnes (MT) of CO2e.

Investigators say increased production and use of Venezuelan oil could add up to 729 million tonnes of CO2e emissions to the atmosphere annually – akin to a methane bomb being detonated annually.

Global Witness’ analysis comes as the US Department of Energy says the Trump administration has already begun “marketing Venezuelan crude oil in the global marketplace” and that the sale of millions of barrels of oil will continue “indefinitely”.

Trump’s plan completely fails to address Venezuelan oil production’s outsized climate impact. The state’s oil industry is among the most carbon intensive in the world, with vast amounts of methane – one of the most potent greenhouse gases – vented, flared or leaked during oil production, transport and storage.

The International Energy Agency estimates that Venezuela’s crude is already six times more methane intensive and 10 times more flaring intensive than the global average. 

Taking this data into account, Global Witness calculated the flaring and venting emissions from Venezuelan oil production, plus that oil’s end use emissions – i.e. what is released when it is consumed within energy systems.

The analysis found that any meaningful increase in output could have catastrophic implications.

Global Witness head of fossil fuels investigations Patrick Galey said:

“Trump’s neocolonial seizure of Venezuelan oil isn’t just financially risky and morally indefensible, it’s catastrophic for the climate.

“Venezuela’s oil industry is amongst the most polluting and poorly maintained in the world. Its infrastructure is severely dilapidated and leaky, its gas venting and flaring rates are abysmally high. And given Trump’s track record, it’s likely the US won’t even try to tackle Venezuela’s flaring problem.

“Until we have a rapid and just transition away from fossil fuels, we’ll continue to see the world’s climate and security left to the whims of pariahs and profiteers.” 

Were production to increase to 1.4 million barrels per day (mppd), emissions from flaring and venting would increase from 76 million tonnes of CO2 each year to 116 million tonnes of CO2.

At 3 million barrels per day – an expensive but technically feasible rate – flaring and venting emissions from Venezuelan oil production would reach 250 million tonnes of CO2, equivalent to Algeria’s annual carbon pollution.

Adding in the carbon from consuming the oil, and a 3 million barrels per day scenario would see companies add 729 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere every year – almost as much as emissions from the entire global shipping industry.

As well as obvious concerns over the legality of the US commandeering another sovereign nation’s national resource, any meaningful increase in Venezuelan crude production is likely to have devastating effects on local communities due to heightened air and water pollution via flaring, venting and leakages.

Gas flaring is known to cause breathing difficulties, respiratory disease, heart disease and strokes.

Venezuela’s oil sector lacks the necessary capture, processing and transport infrastructure to handle this associated gas.

As a result, large portions of it are routinely flared or vented, releasing significant quantities of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

The Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA does not report on methane and flaring volumes, but Global Witness found it operates some of the most flare intensive facilities on the planet. World Bank flaring data shows facilities there flared 8.3 billion cubic metres of gas in 2024, making Venezuela the 5th largest flarer in terms of volume.

Two of the top 5 flaring sites by volume in the world last year, Santa Barbara and Field 76, are both operated by PDVSA. 

Trump has also repeatedly tried to row back efforts to lower methane emissions from oil and gas production.

In March 2025 he signed legislation killing the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to tax companies for excessive methane leaks. As such, it remains highly questionable that any western company  would be mandated to minimise flaring and venting.

Methodology

Emissions from flaring, venting and oil combustion were estimated using national-level production data for Venezuela in 2024 and the same methodology was applied consistently across all higher-production scenarios.

According to the Energy Analytics Institute, Venezuela produced an average of 3,895 million cubic feet of natural gas per day in 2024, of which 46% was flared and 8% was vented. These percentages were applied to total gas production to estimate the volumes of gas flared and vented during the year.

Emissions from flaring were calculated by converting flared gas volumes to carbon dioxide using a methane carbon content of 54.81 kg CO₂ per thousand cubic feet (kcf) of methane.

Emissions from venting were calculated by converting vented gas volumes to methane mass using standard volumetric conversion factors, applying a methane content of natural gas, and expressing methane emissions in carbon-dioxide-equivalent terms using a 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) of 29.8

According to the Energy Analytics Institute 76.5% Venezuela’s gas production is associated gas produced alongside oil extraction (although other estimates are higher), therefore we attribute 76.5% of flaring and venting emissions to oil production.

Using reported 2024 oil production of approximately 910,000 barrels per day, we derive an emissions intensity per barrel of oil produced by dividing associated-gas flaring and venting emissions by total oil output.

Emissions from oil combustion were calculated separately using a factor of 0.438 tonnes of CO₂ per barrel of crude oil burned. These per-barrel emissions intensities are then applied to higher oil-production scenarios to estimate total emissions from flaring, venting and oil combustion under expanded production.

We assume that increases in oil production would not be accompanied by improvements in gas-capture, processing or storage infrastructure; flaring and venting rates are therefore modelled as increasing in line with oil output.