Key insights on the natural gas market provided by NGI’s price and data analysts

NGI chart comparing Chicago Citygate natural gas prices year/year for the winter seasons, showing daily prices for Winter 2024/25 and Winter 2025/26 alongside the Winter 2025/26 forward fixed price. Winter 2025/26 prices generally range between $3.00/MMBtu and $4.50/MMBtu, while Winter 2024/25 features sharp cold-driven spikes above $9.00/MMBtu in January and February.

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NGI’s Chicago Citygate natural gas prices have softened in recent days, and while a cold snap is looming, it may not be enough to offer momentum to the market. Chicago Citygate’s daily price fell to $2.695/MMBtu on Jan. 15. The hub has had an average premium of 88.0 cents this winter so far, but spot prices since Jan. 6 have run at a $1.110 average discount to year-ago levels.Lower-than-expected storage withdrawals amid generally modest winter weather appear to be the main driver for prices dropping below $3.000 this winter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a withdrawal in the Midwest of 31 Bcf in the most recent storage data covering the week ended Jan. 9. That left 790 Bcf in storage for the Midwest, which is 28 Bcf lower than year-earlier levels and 52 Bcf below the five-year average.Total current storage is 33 Bcf above last year’s and 106 Bcf above the five-year average, according to EIA. This could be why prices have continued to fall despite the storage realities in the Midwest region alone. Weather is another factor though. Winter 2025/26 in Chicago has been warmer so far with an average temperature of 35 degrees, compared with an average of 31 degrees last winter.Colder temps are on the horizon for Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend with a low of 5 degrees on Monday, as well as some snow for Chicago. NatGasWeather said this “impressively cold system” will sweep across much of the Lower 48 late this weekend through early next week before another frosty weather system follows Jan. 24-30. This is where the overnight weather data trended a little further colder with the set up for another bout of strong national demand.In spite of the chilly outlook, Chicago Citygate forward fixed prices for February were at $3.268 as of Friday (Jan. 16), off from $5.109 at the start of winter on Nov. 3, NGI’s Forward Look data show. The March 2026 fixed price contract has fallen to $2.527, down from $3.740 on Nov. 3. Meanwhile, the average daily spot price in February 2025 was $4.130, and March 2025 averaged $3.510.