WANA (Jan 17) – Eight Points on Iran’s Current Situation and the Options Facing Washington and Tehran.
1- Iran’s internal situation is calm, security forces have regained control of the country, and people’s daily lives have largely returned to a relatively normal routine.
2- The likelihood of a U.S. military attack has significantly diminished. The Iranian government’s restraint regarding the execution of detained individuals gave the U.S. president the opportunity to declare—at least for now—that a second strike is off the table.
3- Washington has become disappointed with, or at least deeply uncertain about, the strategy of “collapsing Iran through organizing unrest, instability, and civil war.” Billions of dollars spent to advance this strategy were wasted, and the illusion of creating an exile-based alternative to lead protests inside Iran also failed.
4- At the same time, the problems facing the Iranian people are serious and real. Not only do they persist, but they have worsened after recent events, and the blood of many innocent people has been shed.
5- The current return of relative calm presents an opportunity for Iran’s leadership to undertake fundamental measures to address structural problems and improve governance, including improving economic conditions, combating poverty, corruption, and unemployment, and removing incompetent or infiltrated managers.
6- The greatest challenge to Iran’s foreign policy and national security is tension in relations with the United States. For President Trump as well, easing tensions with Iran is among the most complex foreign policy issues. Resolving this challenge requires major decisions by both capitals.
7- A limited and targeted U.S. military strike would yield no result other than intensifying hostility, and a large-scale military action against Iran would certainly endanger the stability of the entire region and threaten U.S. partners across the Middle East. Therefore, the United States should take military options off the table, as they entail high costs and risks for the U.S., Iran, and the region as a whole.
8- Diplomacy is the only path to peace. Washington and Tehran need a direct, meaningful, and comprehensive dialogue—provided that its outcome is honorable and acceptable for both capitals.