As many as 90,000 jobs could be on the line in the auto and battery sectors if supply chains were to be disrupted for a year, experts warn, as trade wars and macroeconomic events raise questions about how resilient the UK economy would be if it couldn’t import key parts from China.

According to a new analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), these job losses could occur if the UK’s main source of battery components were to face a year-long interruption. This could also wipe out production of more than 580,000 electric vehicles.

Disruptions to the supply of key products such as batteries, solar panels, steel and critical minerals would also slow the rollout of clean energy technologies and threaten industries vital to regional economies, the think tank’s analysis showed.

Meanwhile, delays to solar rollout and continued dependence on gas could also cost the UK an extra £1.5bn a year unless decisive action is taken to secure clean energy supply chains, it added.

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Recent crises have demonstrated the fragility of global industries and trade. The COVID-19 pandemic showed how quickly disruptions can ripple through to households and the workforce, while the Russia–Ukraine war has added further instability and driven up energy prices.

“Trump’s trade war with China, the rise of conflicts around the world – these shocks ultimately hurt the UK economy because we rely so much on trade to source the essentials, including clean energy technologies,” said Pranesh Narayanan, senior research fellow.

“Rachel Reeves recognised this when she spoke about ‘securonomics’ and the need for resilience. We’ve set out several steps for how the government can do this through international investment and partnership.”

The world’s over-reliance on China exacerbates these risks, the IPPR said, adding that 80 to 90% of global refining for critical minerals is controlled by China.

Relying on a single source of supply leaves the UK and its allies more vulnerable to geopolitical and economic shocks.

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