①The recent geopolitical instability in the Middle East may affect methanol imports. Reporters from Cailian She interviewed relevant listed companies and learned that methanol prices have slightly rebounded recently but remain low. If supply decreases subsequently, it will directly lead to a reduction in port inventories, thereby pushing domestic spot and futures prices up rapidly; ②International and domestic carbon reduction policies are gradually advancing, leading to an increasing demand for green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, with a promising outlook for green methanol.
Cailian She News, January 18 (reported by Xiao Lianghua) China’s methanol imports have continued to grow, with the Middle East being the main source. The recent geopolitical instability in the Middle East may affect methanol imports. Reporters from Cailian She interviewed relevant listed companies and learned that methanol prices have slightly rebounded recently but remain low. Currently, methanol supply and demand are in a tight balance. If supply decreases subsequently, it will directly lead to a reduction in port inventories, thereby pushing domestic spot and futures prices up rapidly.
“The price of methanol at southern ports fell to a low of 2,070 yuan per ton in 2025, while in the first half of January, it was already above 2,250 yuan per ton.” A methanol dealer in Shandong told reporters from Cailian She that there has been little change in methanol prices in the north, while the south has seen a slight rebound. Staff in the securities department of Jiangsu Sopo (600746.SH) told reporters from Cailian She who called as investors that the company produced 236,000 tons of methanol between July and September, mainly for internal use with some sold externally. Prices fluctuate according to market conditions, though downstream acetic acid prices have risen by 100-200 yuan per ton recently.
Fan Jing, a methanol analyst at Longzhong Information, told reporters from Cailian She that the core methanol production capacity in China remains concentrated in leading coal-to-methanol enterprises such as Inner Mongolia Baofeng, Ningxia Baofeng, and Yanchang Zhongmei. With the successive commissioning of large-scale methanol-to-olefins integrated facilities, domestic methanol production is gradually upgrading towards larger scale and centralization. International and domestic carbon reduction policies are gradually advancing, leading to an increasing demand for green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, with a promising outlook for green methanol.
Supply reduction may stimulate an increase in methanol prices.
Customs data shows that from January to November 2025, China’s cumulative methanol imports reached approximately 12.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The largest source of imports was Iran, accounting for an estimated 60%, while the entire Middle East region accounted for nearly 70% of China’s methanol imports. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have a significant impact on methanol import supplies.
China’s domestic methanol market has long exhibited a differentiated structure. The inland market is primarily supplied domestically, and in recent years, the continuous deployment of CTO facilities has increased the proportion of self-use by enterprises. In contrast, the port market relies heavily on imports, with regions such as East China exhibiting significantly higher import dependence than the national average.
Reporters from Cailian She called Jin Niu Chemical (600722.SH) in the capacity of investors, and staff from the company’s securities department stated that the current methanol plant utilization rate is at 100%, with all major customers located nearby. Inventory levels are very low, and sales prices have not changed much compared to previous levels. Staff from the securities department of Shaanxi Hei Mao (601015.SH) stated that methanol prices fluctuate based on market conditions.
Fan Jing, a methanol analyst at Longzhong Information, told reporters from Cailian She that China’s methanol supply and demand is currently in a tight balance, with slower growth in production capacity. Enterprises are increasingly seeking to extend into downstream sectors to form complete industrial chains and enhance their competitive advantages, resulting in an annual increase in the integration level of China’s methanol industry. In recent years, geopolitical conflicts have persisted, with Iran being China’s largest import partner. When supply decreases, it will directly lead to a reduction in port inventories, thereby pushing domestic spot and futures prices up rapidly.
Fan Jing stated that domestic methanol supply is abundant, traditional downstream raw material inventories are high, and seasonal demand is weak. Ports also face high inventory levels and unfavorable factors such as olefin facility shutdowns. Companies remain focused on active destocking during the Spring Festival. While the broader market benefits from macroeconomic tailwinds, fundamental headwinds continue to drive wide-ranging fluctuations.
Data from Shanghai Steel Union shows that in recent years, the overall price of raw coal has declined, allowing coal-based methanol enterprises to restore profitability and increase capacity utilization. Methanol production using coke oven gas has continuously maintained strong profitability, with facilities operating at consistently high levels. However, natural gas-based methanol enterprises have faced profit pressure, leading to a decline in capacity utilization, which has somewhat lowered the overall domestic methanol capacity utilization rate. Thanks to the structural advantage of coal-based methanol technology accounting for 77.29% of total capacity, the overall domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is expected to achieve significant improvement by 2025 compared to previous years.
Green methanol enters a period of explosive growth.
In October 2025, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will submit for review the world’s first legally binding net-zero emissions framework for the global shipping industry. Driven by this development, research institutions widely predict that demand for green methanol in the shipping sector will surge in the next five years, increasing from the current annual level of several hundred thousand tons to between 30 million and 40 million tons by 2030, an increase of more than a hundredfold. By 2030, green methanol is expected to create a new market worth over tens of billions of yuan.
Reporters learned that listed companies on the A-share market, such as Goldwind Technologies (002202.SZ), China Tianying (000035.SZ), Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. (000875.SZ), and Jiaze Renewable Energy (601619.SH), have proactively laid out plans for green electricity-to-green methanol industries, and some companies already have orders in hand.
Fan Jing revealed that most of the currently operational green methanol plants are located in regions rich in renewable energy resources, such as Northwest, Northeast, and coastal provinces. Their capacities range from 50,000 to 250,000 tons per year. Currently, only those enterprises with smooth access to raw materials and orders can maintain relatively stable production, while other facilities are primarily engaged in intermittent production due to constraints related to either raw materials or orders.
In September 2025, Goldwind Technologies announced that the company would construct a 3 GW wind power-to-hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol integrated project in Bayannur, with a total investment exceeding 18.9 billion yuan. Over 80% of the generated electricity will be used for water electrolysis to produce green hydrogen, which will then be coupled with biomass gasification to annually produce 600,000 tons of green methanol and 400,000 tons of green ammonia.
Previously, Goldwind Technologies had invested in a 500,000-ton (Phase I: 250,000 tons) green methanol project in Xing’an League, Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of 13.7 billion yuan. In July 2025, the registered scale of the project was expanded to 850,000 tons.
In June 2025, Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd. disclosed that its subsidiary planned to invest in constructing the Lishu Green Methanol Innovation Demonstration Project in Jilin Province, with a total investment of 4.92 billion yuan. This marks the company’s first green methanol innovation demonstration project to be implemented.
Shanghai Electric’s 50,000-ton-per-year green methanol project in Taonan, Jilin, has entered trial operation and received an order from CMA CGM Group. The commissioning of the project allows the company to bring its green methanol products to market, driving revenue growth and enhancing profitability.
Huayi Group (600623.SH) held an inauguration ceremony on December 29, 2025, for its 100,000-ton-per-year green methanol project.
A staff member from the Securities Department of Fugie Technology (688335.SH) stated that the company is advancing its pilot verification for producing green methanol from biogas at a scale of thousands of tons. This effort aims to verify costs and technological pathways while laying a critical technical foundation for future industrial applications of green fuels at a scale of 100,000 tons.